Recent numerical weather forecasts for Chengdu indicate a minimum temperature of 19–21°C on September 23, with models converging on values near 20°C amid persistent cloud cover, scattered showers, and light winds that limit overnight radiative cooling. High humidity levels near 80–90% and a stable Sichuan basin airflow further moderate extremes, keeping overnight lows above historical September averages in some runs while preventing sharp drops. Trader consensus at 42% for 20°C and 35% for 21°C reflects this tight model spread, with lower probabilities assigned to 19°C or cooler outcomes pending final observational data from local stations. Updated model runs overnight could refine the exact threshold.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Chengdu on September 23?
Lowest temperature in Chengdu on September 23?
20°C 42%
21°C 35%
15°C or below 32%
25°C or higher 32%
NEW
NEW
Sep 23, 2026
15°C or below
32%
16°C
27%
17°C
14%
18°C
13%
19°C
19%
20°C
42%
21°C
35%
22°C
16%
23°C
27%
24°C
31%
25°C or higher
32%
20°C 42%
21°C 35%
15°C or below 32%
25°C or higher 32%
NEW
NEW
Sep 23, 2026
15°C or below
$100 Vol.
32%
16°C
$40 Vol.
27%
17°C
$0 Vol.
14%
18°C
$0 Vol.
13%
19°C
$0 Vol.
19%
20°C
$7 Vol.
42%
21°C
$7 Vol.
35%
22°C
$0 Vol.
16%
23°C
$25 Vol.
27%
24°C
$25 Vol.
31%
25°C or higher
$100 Vol.
32%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 23 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuuu
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent numerical weather forecasts for Chengdu indicate a minimum temperature of 19–21°C on September 23, with models converging on values near 20°C amid persistent cloud cover, scattered showers, and light winds that limit overnight radiative cooling. High humidity levels near 80–90% and a stable Sichuan basin airflow further moderate extremes, keeping overnight lows above historical September averages in some runs while preventing sharp drops. Trader consensus at 42% for 20°C and 35% for 21°C reflects this tight model spread, with lower probabilities assigned to 19°C or cooler outcomes pending final observational data from local stations. Updated model runs overnight could refine the exact threshold.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 23 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuuu
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuuu
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 21, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
Volume
$305End Date
Sep 23, 2026Market Opened
Sep 21, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuuuResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 23 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuuu
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent numerical weather forecasts for Chengdu indicate a minimum temperature of 19–21°C on September 23, with models converging on values near 20°C amid persistent cloud cover, scattered showers, and light winds that limit overnight radiative cooling. High humidity levels near 80–90% and a stable Sichuan basin airflow further moderate extremes, keeping overnight lows above historical September averages in some runs while preventing sharp drops. Trader consensus at 42% for 20°C and 35% for 21°C reflects this tight model spread, with lower probabilities assigned to 19°C or cooler outcomes pending final observational data from local stations. Updated model runs overnight could refine the exact threshold.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 23 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuuu
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuuu
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$305End Date
Sep 23, 2026Market Opened
Sep 21, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuuuResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent numerical weather forecasts for Chengdu indicate a minimum temperature of 19–21°C on September 23, with models converging on values near 20°C amid persistent cloud cover, scattered showers, and light winds that limit overnight radiative cooling. High humidity levels near 80–90% and a stable Sichuan basin airflow further moderate extremes, keeping overnight lows above historical September averages in some runs while preventing sharp drops. Trader consensus at 42% for 20°C and 35% for 21°C reflects this tight model spread, with lower probabilities assigned to 19°C or cooler outcomes pending final observational data from local stations. Updated model runs overnight could refine the exact threshold.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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