Current short-range forecasts from multiple models indicate a minimum temperature of 22–24°C in Chongqing on September 3 under predominantly clear skies, light easterly or variable winds, and moderate humidity that supports radiative cooling overnight but limits extreme drops. This places the most likely outcome near the 21°C and 24°C market thresholds, where implied probabilities cluster tightly around 45%. The elevated weighting on 18°C or below reflects residual ensemble spread in boundary-layer cooling rates and possible urban-station measurement nuances, while the near-zero probability for 28°C or higher aligns with the absence of warm-air advection or cloud cover that would suppress nocturnal temperature falls. Updated model runs and official station observations over the next 48 hours will refine these differentials.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Chongqing on September 3?
Lowest temperature in Chongqing on September 3?
18°C or below 96%
27°C 89%
26°C 48%
21°C 46%
NEW
NEW
Sep 3, 2026
18°C or below
96%
19°C
25%
20°C
25%
21°C
46%
22°C
26%
23°C
25%
24°C
45%
25°C
25%
26°C
48%
27°C
89%
28°C or higher
2%
18°C or below 96%
27°C 89%
26°C 48%
21°C 46%
NEW
NEW
Sep 3, 2026
18°C or below
$5 Vol.
96%
19°C
$0 Vol.
25%
20°C
$0 Vol.
25%
21°C
$0 Vol.
46%
22°C
$0 Vol.
26%
23°C
$0 Vol.
25%
24°C
$0 Vol.
45%
25°C
$0 Vol.
25%
26°C
$5 Vol.
48%
27°C
$5 Vol.
89%
28°C or higher
$5 Vol.
2%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chongqing Jiangbei International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 3 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuck
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current short-range forecasts from multiple models indicate a minimum temperature of 22–24°C in Chongqing on September 3 under predominantly clear skies, light easterly or variable winds, and moderate humidity that supports radiative cooling overnight but limits extreme drops. This places the most likely outcome near the 21°C and 24°C market thresholds, where implied probabilities cluster tightly around 45%. The elevated weighting on 18°C or below reflects residual ensemble spread in boundary-layer cooling rates and possible urban-station measurement nuances, while the near-zero probability for 28°C or higher aligns with the absence of warm-air advection or cloud cover that would suppress nocturnal temperature falls. Updated model runs and official station observations over the next 48 hours will refine these differentials.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chongqing Jiangbei International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 3 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuck
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuck
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 1, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
Volume
$20End Date
Sep 3, 2026Market Opened
Sep 1, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuckResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chongqing Jiangbei International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 3 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuck
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current short-range forecasts from multiple models indicate a minimum temperature of 22–24°C in Chongqing on September 3 under predominantly clear skies, light easterly or variable winds, and moderate humidity that supports radiative cooling overnight but limits extreme drops. This places the most likely outcome near the 21°C and 24°C market thresholds, where implied probabilities cluster tightly around 45%. The elevated weighting on 18°C or below reflects residual ensemble spread in boundary-layer cooling rates and possible urban-station measurement nuances, while the near-zero probability for 28°C or higher aligns with the absence of warm-air advection or cloud cover that would suppress nocturnal temperature falls. Updated model runs and official station observations over the next 48 hours will refine these differentials.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chongqing Jiangbei International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 3 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuck
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuck
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$20End Date
Sep 3, 2026Market Opened
Sep 1, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuckResolver
0x69c47De9D...Current short-range forecasts from multiple models indicate a minimum temperature of 22–24°C in Chongqing on September 3 under predominantly clear skies, light easterly or variable winds, and moderate humidity that supports radiative cooling overnight but limits extreme drops. This places the most likely outcome near the 21°C and 24°C market thresholds, where implied probabilities cluster tightly around 45%. The elevated weighting on 18°C or below reflects residual ensemble spread in boundary-layer cooling rates and possible urban-station measurement nuances, while the near-zero probability for 28°C or higher aligns with the absence of warm-air advection or cloud cover that would suppress nocturnal temperature falls. Updated model runs and official station observations over the next 48 hours will refine these differentials.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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