**Forecast consensus positions the lowest temperature in Chongqing on September 2, 2026, near 21–23°C, matching the market’s top-implied probabilities.** Multiple models, including Chinese meteorological sources and international providers, project overnight lows in this narrow band under predominantly clear or partly cloudy skies with light winds and negligible precipitation risk. Highs are expected around 33–35°C, reflecting the lingering summer warmth typical for the region in early September, while calm conditions overnight enable efficient radiative cooling from the surface. Chongqing’s subtropical climate and basin topography amplify diurnal temperature swings during this transitional period, when monsoon influences wane but before stronger autumn fronts arrive. Recent model runs through late August show stable high-pressure dominance, keeping humidity moderate and preventing significant cloud cover or moisture that could elevate minimum temperatures. Historical September averages place nighttime lows near 22°C, providing a climatological baseline that current guidance closely tracks. The tight clustering of probabilities around 21–23°C reflects trader assessment of this model agreement, with lower odds assigned to cooler outliers (18°C or below) or warmer scenarios (25°C+) that would require unexpected shifts in wind patterns or increased cloudiness. Updated forecasts from agencies such as the China Meteorological Administration are likely to refine these values as the date approaches.