Current forecasts from global and regional models indicate overnight lows in Helsinki on September 17 will likely fall in the 9–12°C range, driven by persistent southwesterly flow that advects milder maritime air and limits radiative cooling under partly cloudy skies. Ensemble spreads and local observations show small differences in boundary-layer mixing, dew-point depression, and the timing of any light showers, which can shift the exact minimum by 1–2°C. These factors explain the tight clustering of market-implied probabilities around 9–11°C, with modest weight on 12°C reflecting upside potential if winds remain stronger overnight. Updated high-resolution runs and official Finnish Meteorological Institute guidance ahead of the overnight period will be the key near-term catalysts for any shifts in trader positioning.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Helsinki on September 17?
Lowest temperature in Helsinki on September 17?
16°C or higher 92%
14°C 39%
15°C 39%
11°C 33%
NEW
NEW
Sep 17, 2026
6°C or below
2%
7°C
7%
8°C
17%
9°C
23%
10°C
28%
11°C
33%
12°C
19%
13°C
27%
14°C
39%
15°C
39%
16°C or higher
92%
16°C or higher 92%
14°C 39%
15°C 39%
11°C 33%
NEW
NEW
Sep 17, 2026
6°C or below
$0 Vol.
2%
7°C
$32 Vol.
7%
8°C
$0 Vol.
17%
9°C
$0 Vol.
23%
10°C
$0 Vol.
28%
11°C
$0 Vol.
33%
12°C
$6 Vol.
19%
13°C
$0 Vol.
27%
14°C
$0 Vol.
39%
15°C
$0 Vol.
39%
16°C or higher
$0 Vol.
92%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Helsinki Vantaa Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=efhk
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current forecasts from global and regional models indicate overnight lows in Helsinki on September 17 will likely fall in the 9–12°C range, driven by persistent southwesterly flow that advects milder maritime air and limits radiative cooling under partly cloudy skies. Ensemble spreads and local observations show small differences in boundary-layer mixing, dew-point depression, and the timing of any light showers, which can shift the exact minimum by 1–2°C. These factors explain the tight clustering of market-implied probabilities around 9–11°C, with modest weight on 12°C reflecting upside potential if winds remain stronger overnight. Updated high-resolution runs and official Finnish Meteorological Institute guidance ahead of the overnight period will be the key near-term catalysts for any shifts in trader positioning.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Helsinki Vantaa Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=efhk
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=efhk
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 15, 2026, 12:31 AM ET
Volume
$38End Date
Sep 17, 2026Market Opened
Sep 15, 2026, 12:31 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=efhkResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Helsinki Vantaa Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=efhk
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current forecasts from global and regional models indicate overnight lows in Helsinki on September 17 will likely fall in the 9–12°C range, driven by persistent southwesterly flow that advects milder maritime air and limits radiative cooling under partly cloudy skies. Ensemble spreads and local observations show small differences in boundary-layer mixing, dew-point depression, and the timing of any light showers, which can shift the exact minimum by 1–2°C. These factors explain the tight clustering of market-implied probabilities around 9–11°C, with modest weight on 12°C reflecting upside potential if winds remain stronger overnight. Updated high-resolution runs and official Finnish Meteorological Institute guidance ahead of the overnight period will be the key near-term catalysts for any shifts in trader positioning.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Helsinki Vantaa Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=efhk
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=efhk
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$38End Date
Sep 17, 2026Market Opened
Sep 15, 2026, 12:31 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=efhkResolver
0x69c47De9D...Current forecasts from global and regional models indicate overnight lows in Helsinki on September 17 will likely fall in the 9–12°C range, driven by persistent southwesterly flow that advects milder maritime air and limits radiative cooling under partly cloudy skies. Ensemble spreads and local observations show small differences in boundary-layer mixing, dew-point depression, and the timing of any light showers, which can shift the exact minimum by 1–2°C. These factors explain the tight clustering of market-implied probabilities around 9–11°C, with modest weight on 12°C reflecting upside potential if winds remain stronger overnight. Updated high-resolution runs and official Finnish Meteorological Institute guidance ahead of the overnight period will be the key near-term catalysts for any shifts in trader positioning.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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