Recent weather model consensus, including GFS guidance, supports overnight radiative cooling under partly clear skies and light southerly winds, positioning 8°C as the most probable minimum for Munich on September 15. Dew points near 10–12°C and moderate humidity limit further drops, while the mid-September climatological baseline of roughly 10°C provides context for this slightly below-average reading. Current surface observations show temperatures holding in the low teens Celsius into the evening, consistent with the market-implied 69% probability on 8°C versus minimal odds on colder thresholds. Final DWD station data will resolve the market once the calendar day closes.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Munich on September 15?
Lowest temperature in Munich on September 15?
8°C 100.0%
4°C or below <1%
5°C <1%
6°C <1%
$4,126 Vol.
$4,126 Vol.
Sep 15, 2026
4°C or below
No
5°C
No
6°C
No
7°C
No
8°C
Yes
9°C
No
10°C
No
11°C
No
12°C
No
13°C
No
14°C or higher
No
8°C 100.0%
4°C or below <1%
5°C <1%
6°C <1%
$4,126 Vol.
$4,126 Vol.
Sep 15, 2026
4°C or below
$26 Vol.
No
5°C
$256 Vol.
No
6°C
$409 Vol.
No
7°C
$155 Vol.
No
8°C
$2,857 Vol.
Yes
9°C
$123 Vol.
No
10°C
$86 Vol.
No
11°C
$70 Vol.
No
12°C
$80 Vol.
No
13°C
$32 Vol.
No
14°C or higher
$32 Vol.
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Munich Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eddm
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent weather model consensus, including GFS guidance, supports overnight radiative cooling under partly clear skies and light southerly winds, positioning 8°C as the most probable minimum for Munich on September 15. Dew points near 10–12°C and moderate humidity limit further drops, while the mid-September climatological baseline of roughly 10°C provides context for this slightly below-average reading. Current surface observations show temperatures holding in the low teens Celsius into the evening, consistent with the market-implied 69% probability on 8°C versus minimal odds on colder thresholds. Final DWD station data will resolve the market once the calendar day closes.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Munich Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eddm
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eddm
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 13, 2026, 1:30 PM ET
Volume
$4,126End Date
Sep 15, 2026Market Opened
Sep 13, 2026, 1:30 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eddmResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Munich Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eddm
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent weather model consensus, including GFS guidance, supports overnight radiative cooling under partly clear skies and light southerly winds, positioning 8°C as the most probable minimum for Munich on September 15. Dew points near 10–12°C and moderate humidity limit further drops, while the mid-September climatological baseline of roughly 10°C provides context for this slightly below-average reading. Current surface observations show temperatures holding in the low teens Celsius into the evening, consistent with the market-implied 69% probability on 8°C versus minimal odds on colder thresholds. Final DWD station data will resolve the market once the calendar day closes.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Munich Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eddm
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eddm
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$4,126End Date
Sep 15, 2026Market Opened
Sep 13, 2026, 1:30 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eddmResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
Recent weather model consensus, including GFS guidance, supports overnight radiative cooling under partly clear skies and light southerly winds, positioning 8°C as the most probable minimum for Munich on September 15. Dew points near 10–12°C and moderate humidity limit further drops, while the mid-September climatological baseline of roughly 10°C provides context for this slightly below-average reading. Current surface observations show temperatures holding in the low teens Celsius into the evening, consistent with the market-implied 69% probability on 8°C versus minimal odds on colder thresholds. Final DWD station data will resolve the market once the calendar day closes.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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