Recent forecast model runs from agencies including the German Weather Service and ECMWF indicate a minimum temperature in Munich on September 17 most likely between 9°C and 12°C, driven by a west-northwesterly flow advecting cooler maritime air after daytime highs near 19°C and scattered showers. Radiative cooling under partly cloudy skies overnight will determine the exact low, with dew points around 8–10°C limiting further drops. Historical September averages near 10°C provide context, while model spread and timing of any clearing introduce the primary uncertainty traders are pricing into the tightly clustered 8–11°C outcomes. Updated guidance ahead of the overnight period could shift these market-implied probabilities.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Munich on September 17?
Lowest temperature in Munich on September 17?
8°C or below 36%
10°C 29%
11°C 25%
9°C 23%
NEW
NEW
Sep 17, 2026
8°C or below
36%
9°C
23%
10°C
29%
11°C
25%
12°C
21%
13°C
16%
14°C
14%
15°C
14%
16°C
8%
17°C
2%
18°C or higher
2%
8°C or below 36%
10°C 29%
11°C 25%
9°C 23%
NEW
NEW
Sep 17, 2026
8°C or below
$0 Vol.
36%
9°C
$0 Vol.
23%
10°C
$0 Vol.
29%
11°C
$0 Vol.
25%
12°C
$0 Vol.
21%
13°C
$0 Vol.
16%
14°C
$0 Vol.
14%
15°C
$0 Vol.
14%
16°C
$0 Vol.
8%
17°C
$0 Vol.
2%
18°C or higher
$0 Vol.
2%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Munich Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eddm
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecast model runs from agencies including the German Weather Service and ECMWF indicate a minimum temperature in Munich on September 17 most likely between 9°C and 12°C, driven by a west-northwesterly flow advecting cooler maritime air after daytime highs near 19°C and scattered showers. Radiative cooling under partly cloudy skies overnight will determine the exact low, with dew points around 8–10°C limiting further drops. Historical September averages near 10°C provide context, while model spread and timing of any clearing introduce the primary uncertainty traders are pricing into the tightly clustered 8–11°C outcomes. Updated guidance ahead of the overnight period could shift these market-implied probabilities.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Munich Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eddm
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eddm
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 15, 2026, 12:29 AM ET
Volume
$0End Date
Sep 17, 2026Market Opened
Sep 15, 2026, 12:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eddmResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Munich Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eddm
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecast model runs from agencies including the German Weather Service and ECMWF indicate a minimum temperature in Munich on September 17 most likely between 9°C and 12°C, driven by a west-northwesterly flow advecting cooler maritime air after daytime highs near 19°C and scattered showers. Radiative cooling under partly cloudy skies overnight will determine the exact low, with dew points around 8–10°C limiting further drops. Historical September averages near 10°C provide context, while model spread and timing of any clearing introduce the primary uncertainty traders are pricing into the tightly clustered 8–11°C outcomes. Updated guidance ahead of the overnight period could shift these market-implied probabilities.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Munich Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eddm
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eddm
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$0End Date
Sep 17, 2026Market Opened
Sep 15, 2026, 12:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eddmResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent forecast model runs from agencies including the German Weather Service and ECMWF indicate a minimum temperature in Munich on September 17 most likely between 9°C and 12°C, driven by a west-northwesterly flow advecting cooler maritime air after daytime highs near 19°C and scattered showers. Radiative cooling under partly cloudy skies overnight will determine the exact low, with dew points around 8–10°C limiting further drops. Historical September averages near 10°C provide context, while model spread and timing of any clearing introduce the primary uncertainty traders are pricing into the tightly clustered 8–11°C outcomes. Updated guidance ahead of the overnight period could shift these market-implied probabilities.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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Frequently Asked Questions