Recent National Weather Service and AccuWeather model guidance consistently projected overnight lows near 69°F for New York City on August 15, 2026, under a stable high-pressure ridge with dew points in the mid-60s and minimal marine influence. This aligned with Central Park climatological normals and urban heat island moderation, producing the market’s near-certain 68-69°F outcome. Limited model spread and absence of frontal passages reinforced trader consensus on this narrow range. An unforecasted cold-air advection event or late model error could have shifted results lower, though the tight clustering of probabilities above 99% reflected strong observational and dynamical support for the expected minimum.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in NYC on August 15?
Lowest temperature in NYC on August 15?
68-69°F 100.0%
57°F or below <1%
58-59°F <1%
60-61°F <1%
$24,958 Vol.
$24,958 Vol.
Aug 15, 2026
57°F or below
No
58-59°F
No
60-61°F
No
62-63°F
No
64-65°F
No
66-67°F
No
68-69°F
Yes
70-71°F
No
72-73°F
No
74-75°F
No
76°F or higher
No
68-69°F 100.0%
57°F or below <1%
58-59°F <1%
60-61°F <1%
$24,958 Vol.
$24,958 Vol.
Aug 15, 2026
57°F or below
$336 Vol.
No
58-59°F
$317 Vol.
No
60-61°F
$1,095 Vol.
No
62-63°F
$927 Vol.
No
64-65°F
$824 Vol.
No
66-67°F
$920 Vol.
No
68-69°F
$2,892 Vol.
Yes
70-71°F
$12,936 Vol.
No
72-73°F
$2,410 Vol.
No
74-75°F
$1,410 Vol.
No
76°F or higher
$891 Vol.
No
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent National Weather Service and AccuWeather model guidance consistently projected overnight lows near 69°F for New York City on August 15, 2026, under a stable high-pressure ridge with dew points in the mid-60s and minimal marine influence. This aligned with Central Park climatological normals and urban heat island moderation, producing the market’s near-certain 68-69°F outcome. Limited model spread and absence of frontal passages reinforced trader consensus on this narrow range. An unforecasted cold-air advection event or late model error could have shifted results lower, though the tight clustering of probabilities above 99% reflected strong observational and dynamical support for the expected minimum.
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 13, 2026, 9:28 PM ET
Volume
$24,958End Date
Aug 15, 2026Market Opened
Aug 13, 2026, 9:28 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent National Weather Service and AccuWeather model guidance consistently projected overnight lows near 69°F for New York City on August 15, 2026, under a stable high-pressure ridge with dew points in the mid-60s and minimal marine influence. This aligned with Central Park climatological normals and urban heat island moderation, producing the market’s near-certain 68-69°F outcome. Limited model spread and absence of frontal passages reinforced trader consensus on this narrow range. An unforecasted cold-air advection event or late model error could have shifted results lower, though the tight clustering of probabilities above 99% reflected strong observational and dynamical support for the expected minimum.
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$24,958End Date
Aug 15, 2026Market Opened
Aug 13, 2026, 9:28 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
Recent National Weather Service and AccuWeather model guidance consistently projected overnight lows near 69°F for New York City on August 15, 2026, under a stable high-pressure ridge with dew points in the mid-60s and minimal marine influence. This aligned with Central Park climatological normals and urban heat island moderation, producing the market’s near-certain 68-69°F outcome. Limited model spread and absence of frontal passages reinforced trader consensus on this narrow range. An unforecasted cold-air advection event or late model error could have shifted results lower, though the tight clustering of probabilities above 99% reflected strong observational and dynamical support for the expected minimum.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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