Latest ensemble forecasts from major models such as GFS and ECMWF place Paris’s minimum temperature on September 23 near 11–12 °C, reflecting the near-even market split between those outcomes. A persistent high-pressure ridge is delivering clear to partly cloudy skies and light northeasterly winds, favoring efficient nocturnal radiative cooling under dry air with dew points in the single digits. Historical climatology shows an average low of 10.9 °C, so current guidance sits slightly above normal yet remains sensitive to small shifts in cloud timing or boundary-layer mixing. Météo-France’s official observations will determine the exact recorded minimum, with any late-model adjustments or localized valley effects the main variables that could tip the balance between 10 °C and 11 °C.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Paris on September 23?
Lowest temperature in Paris on September 23?
11°C 44%
10°C 41%
12°C 10%
9°C 7%
NEW
NEW
Sep 23, 2026
8°C or below
2%
9°C
7%
10°C
41%
11°C
44%
12°C
10%
13°C
6%
14°C
1%
15°C
2%
16°C
2%
17°C
2%
18°C or higher
2%
11°C 44%
10°C 41%
12°C 10%
9°C 7%
NEW
NEW
Sep 23, 2026
8°C or below
$0 Vol.
2%
9°C
$88 Vol.
7%
10°C
$391 Vol.
41%
11°C
$1,159 Vol.
44%
12°C
$318 Vol.
10%
13°C
$80 Vol.
6%
14°C
$24 Vol.
1%
15°C
$0 Vol.
2%
16°C
$0 Vol.
2%
17°C
$0 Vol.
2%
18°C or higher
$0 Vol.
2%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 23 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lfpb
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Latest ensemble forecasts from major models such as GFS and ECMWF place Paris’s minimum temperature on September 23 near 11–12 °C, reflecting the near-even market split between those outcomes. A persistent high-pressure ridge is delivering clear to partly cloudy skies and light northeasterly winds, favoring efficient nocturnal radiative cooling under dry air with dew points in the single digits. Historical climatology shows an average low of 10.9 °C, so current guidance sits slightly above normal yet remains sensitive to small shifts in cloud timing or boundary-layer mixing. Météo-France’s official observations will determine the exact recorded minimum, with any late-model adjustments or localized valley effects the main variables that could tip the balance between 10 °C and 11 °C.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 23 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lfpb
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lfpb
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 21, 2026, 12:29 AM ET
Volume
$2,060End Date
Sep 23, 2026Market Opened
Sep 21, 2026, 12:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lfpbResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 23 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lfpb
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Latest ensemble forecasts from major models such as GFS and ECMWF place Paris’s minimum temperature on September 23 near 11–12 °C, reflecting the near-even market split between those outcomes. A persistent high-pressure ridge is delivering clear to partly cloudy skies and light northeasterly winds, favoring efficient nocturnal radiative cooling under dry air with dew points in the single digits. Historical climatology shows an average low of 10.9 °C, so current guidance sits slightly above normal yet remains sensitive to small shifts in cloud timing or boundary-layer mixing. Météo-France’s official observations will determine the exact recorded minimum, with any late-model adjustments or localized valley effects the main variables that could tip the balance between 10 °C and 11 °C.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 23 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lfpb
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lfpb
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$2,060End Date
Sep 23, 2026Market Opened
Sep 21, 2026, 12:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lfpbResolver
0x69c47De9D...Latest ensemble forecasts from major models such as GFS and ECMWF place Paris’s minimum temperature on September 23 near 11–12 °C, reflecting the near-even market split between those outcomes. A persistent high-pressure ridge is delivering clear to partly cloudy skies and light northeasterly winds, favoring efficient nocturnal radiative cooling under dry air with dew points in the single digits. Historical climatology shows an average low of 10.9 °C, so current guidance sits slightly above normal yet remains sensitive to small shifts in cloud timing or boundary-layer mixing. Météo-France’s official observations will determine the exact recorded minimum, with any late-model adjustments or localized valley effects the main variables that could tip the balance between 10 °C and 11 °C.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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