Recent official forecasts from the China Meteorological Administration and numerical weather models indicate a minimum temperature of 26°C for Shanghai on August 15, 2026, driven by persistent cloud cover, high humidity near 90%, and light winds that limit radiative cooling overnight. Current station observations align with these projections, showing temperatures holding above this threshold through the evening under overcast conditions with scattered showers. Historical August climatology supports this baseline, with typical lows around 25–27°C amid the East Asian summer monsoon pattern. Trader consensus at 100% for 26°C reflects this strong data agreement, though an unexpected clear-sky breakout or intensified cold advection from a passing front could theoretically allow further nocturnal drops before midnight resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Shanghai on August 15?
Lowest temperature in Shanghai on August 15?
26°C 100.0%
20°C or below <1%
21°C <1%
22°C <1%
$41,867 Vol.
$41,867 Vol.
Aug 15, 2026
20°C or below
No
21°C
No
22°C
No
23°C
No
24°C
No
25°C
No
26°C
Yes
27°C
No
28°C
No
29°C
No
30°C or higher
No
26°C 100.0%
20°C or below <1%
21°C <1%
22°C <1%
$41,867 Vol.
$41,867 Vol.
Aug 15, 2026
20°C or below
$313 Vol.
No
21°C
$320 Vol.
No
22°C
$535 Vol.
No
23°C
$1,277 Vol.
No
24°C
$1,211 Vol.
No
25°C
$3,335 Vol.
No
26°C
$5,972 Vol.
Yes
27°C
$26,394 Vol.
No
28°C
$1,795 Vol.
No
29°C
$508 Vol.
No
30°C or higher
$206 Vol.
No
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent official forecasts from the China Meteorological Administration and numerical weather models indicate a minimum temperature of 26°C for Shanghai on August 15, 2026, driven by persistent cloud cover, high humidity near 90%, and light winds that limit radiative cooling overnight. Current station observations align with these projections, showing temperatures holding above this threshold through the evening under overcast conditions with scattered showers. Historical August climatology supports this baseline, with typical lows around 25–27°C amid the East Asian summer monsoon pattern. Trader consensus at 100% for 26°C reflects this strong data agreement, though an unexpected clear-sky breakout or intensified cold advection from a passing front could theoretically allow further nocturnal drops before midnight resolution.
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 13, 2026, 12:28 AM ET
Volume
$41,867End Date
Aug 15, 2026Market Opened
Aug 13, 2026, 12:28 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent official forecasts from the China Meteorological Administration and numerical weather models indicate a minimum temperature of 26°C for Shanghai on August 15, 2026, driven by persistent cloud cover, high humidity near 90%, and light winds that limit radiative cooling overnight. Current station observations align with these projections, showing temperatures holding above this threshold through the evening under overcast conditions with scattered showers. Historical August climatology supports this baseline, with typical lows around 25–27°C amid the East Asian summer monsoon pattern. Trader consensus at 100% for 26°C reflects this strong data agreement, though an unexpected clear-sky breakout or intensified cold advection from a passing front could theoretically allow further nocturnal drops before midnight resolution.
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$41,867End Date
Aug 15, 2026Market Opened
Aug 13, 2026, 12:28 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
Recent official forecasts from the China Meteorological Administration and numerical weather models indicate a minimum temperature of 26°C for Shanghai on August 15, 2026, driven by persistent cloud cover, high humidity near 90%, and light winds that limit radiative cooling overnight. Current station observations align with these projections, showing temperatures holding above this threshold through the evening under overcast conditions with scattered showers. Historical August climatology supports this baseline, with typical lows around 25–27°C amid the East Asian summer monsoon pattern. Trader consensus at 100% for 26°C reflects this strong data agreement, though an unexpected clear-sky breakout or intensified cold advection from a passing front could theoretically allow further nocturnal drops before midnight resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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