Recent forecast model consensus from sources including the China Meteorological Administration and international ensembles points to a minimum air temperature near 26°C in Shanghai overnight into August 16, driven by persistent warm, humid southerly flow, limited nocturnal cooling under partly cloudy skies, and seasonal climatology showing typical August lows of 25–27°C. High market-implied odds for 26°C reflect this strong agreement across updated model runs, with minimal divergence expected before resolution. Scenarios that could realistically shift the outcome include heavier overnight precipitation or clearer skies than anticipated enhancing radiational cooling, though current steering patterns and moisture profiles make such deviations unlikely within the final 24 hours.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Shanghai on August 16?
Lowest temperature in Shanghai on August 16?
26°C 96%
25°C 4%
24°C 2%
21°C <1%
NEW
$13,618 Vol.
NEW
$13,618 Vol.
Aug 16, 2026
20°C or below
<1%
21°C
<1%
22°C
<1%
23°C
<1%
24°C
2%
25°C
4%
26°C
96%
27°C
<1%
28°C
<1%
29°C
<1%
30°C or higher
<1%
26°C 96%
25°C 4%
24°C 2%
21°C <1%
NEW
$13,618 Vol.
NEW
$13,618 Vol.
Aug 16, 2026
20°C or below
$323 Vol.
<1%
21°C
$323 Vol.
<1%
22°C
$348 Vol.
<1%
23°C
$807 Vol.
<1%
24°C
$1,224 Vol.
2%
25°C
$2,802 Vol.
4%
26°C
$4,002 Vol.
96%
27°C
$1,013 Vol.
<1%
28°C
$2,108 Vol.
<1%
29°C
$323 Vol.
<1%
30°C or higher
$345 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecast model consensus from sources including the China Meteorological Administration and international ensembles points to a minimum air temperature near 26°C in Shanghai overnight into August 16, driven by persistent warm, humid southerly flow, limited nocturnal cooling under partly cloudy skies, and seasonal climatology showing typical August lows of 25–27°C. High market-implied odds for 26°C reflect this strong agreement across updated model runs, with minimal divergence expected before resolution. Scenarios that could realistically shift the outcome include heavier overnight precipitation or clearer skies than anticipated enhancing radiational cooling, though current steering patterns and moisture profiles make such deviations unlikely within the final 24 hours.
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 14, 2026, 12:28 AM ET
Volume
$13,618End Date
Aug 16, 2026Market Opened
Aug 14, 2026, 12:28 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPDResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecast model consensus from sources including the China Meteorological Administration and international ensembles points to a minimum air temperature near 26°C in Shanghai overnight into August 16, driven by persistent warm, humid southerly flow, limited nocturnal cooling under partly cloudy skies, and seasonal climatology showing typical August lows of 25–27°C. High market-implied odds for 26°C reflect this strong agreement across updated model runs, with minimal divergence expected before resolution. Scenarios that could realistically shift the outcome include heavier overnight precipitation or clearer skies than anticipated enhancing radiational cooling, though current steering patterns and moisture profiles make such deviations unlikely within the final 24 hours.
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$13,618End Date
Aug 16, 2026Market Opened
Aug 14, 2026, 12:28 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent forecast model consensus from sources including the China Meteorological Administration and international ensembles points to a minimum air temperature near 26°C in Shanghai overnight into August 16, driven by persistent warm, humid southerly flow, limited nocturnal cooling under partly cloudy skies, and seasonal climatology showing typical August lows of 25–27°C. High market-implied odds for 26°C reflect this strong agreement across updated model runs, with minimal divergence expected before resolution. Scenarios that could realistically shift the outcome include heavier overnight precipitation or clearer skies than anticipated enhancing radiational cooling, though current steering patterns and moisture profiles make such deviations unlikely within the final 24 hours.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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