Recent forecast models from agencies tracking East Asian monsoon patterns show persistent cloud cover and scattered rain showers over Shenzhen through August 26, which typically suppress overnight radiative cooling and support minimum temperatures near 26–27 °C. Historical August lows average around 26 °C, yet current conditions with elevated humidity and frequent precipitation raise the probability of readings dipping to 22 °C or below, consistent with the 42 % market-implied odds. Model ensembles display modest spread in steering flows that could alter boundary-layer moisture, while the sharp drop-off in odds above 28 °C reflects limited warming potential under these dynamics. Updated guidance expected within 48 hours will clarify whether any additional cooling mechanisms emerge.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Shenzhen on August 26?
Lowest temperature in Shenzhen on August 26?
22°C or below 84%
23°C 43%
24°C 43%
25°C 43%
NEW
NEW
Aug 26, 2026
22°C or below
84%
23°C
43%
24°C
43%
25°C
43%
26°C
27%
27°C
29%
28°C
26%
29°C
23%
30°C
43%
31°C
43%
32°C or higher
1%
22°C or below 84%
23°C 43%
24°C 43%
25°C 43%
NEW
NEW
Aug 26, 2026
22°C or below
$130 Vol.
84%
23°C
$0 Vol.
43%
24°C
$0 Vol.
43%
25°C
$0 Vol.
43%
26°C
$0 Vol.
27%
27°C
$0 Vol.
29%
28°C
$0 Vol.
26%
29°C
$0 Vol.
23%
30°C
$0 Vol.
43%
31°C
$0 Vol.
43%
32°C or higher
$0 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 26 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zgsz
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecast models from agencies tracking East Asian monsoon patterns show persistent cloud cover and scattered rain showers over Shenzhen through August 26, which typically suppress overnight radiative cooling and support minimum temperatures near 26–27 °C. Historical August lows average around 26 °C, yet current conditions with elevated humidity and frequent precipitation raise the probability of readings dipping to 22 °C or below, consistent with the 42 % market-implied odds. Model ensembles display modest spread in steering flows that could alter boundary-layer moisture, while the sharp drop-off in odds above 28 °C reflects limited warming potential under these dynamics. Updated guidance expected within 48 hours will clarify whether any additional cooling mechanisms emerge.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 26 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zgsz
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zgsz
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 24, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
Volume
$130End Date
Aug 26, 2026Market Opened
Aug 24, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zgszResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 26 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zgsz
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecast models from agencies tracking East Asian monsoon patterns show persistent cloud cover and scattered rain showers over Shenzhen through August 26, which typically suppress overnight radiative cooling and support minimum temperatures near 26–27 °C. Historical August lows average around 26 °C, yet current conditions with elevated humidity and frequent precipitation raise the probability of readings dipping to 22 °C or below, consistent with the 42 % market-implied odds. Model ensembles display modest spread in steering flows that could alter boundary-layer moisture, while the sharp drop-off in odds above 28 °C reflects limited warming potential under these dynamics. Updated guidance expected within 48 hours will clarify whether any additional cooling mechanisms emerge.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 26 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zgsz
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zgsz
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$130End Date
Aug 26, 2026Market Opened
Aug 24, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zgszResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent forecast models from agencies tracking East Asian monsoon patterns show persistent cloud cover and scattered rain showers over Shenzhen through August 26, which typically suppress overnight radiative cooling and support minimum temperatures near 26–27 °C. Historical August lows average around 26 °C, yet current conditions with elevated humidity and frequent precipitation raise the probability of readings dipping to 22 °C or below, consistent with the 42 % market-implied odds. Model ensembles display modest spread in steering flows that could alter boundary-layer moisture, while the sharp drop-off in odds above 28 °C reflects limited warming potential under these dynamics. Updated guidance expected within 48 hours will clarify whether any additional cooling mechanisms emerge.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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