U.S. authorities captured Nicolás Maduro in a January 2026 military operation and transferred him to New York for prosecution on federal charges including narco-terrorism conspiracy, cocaine importation, and weapons offenses. After entering not guilty pleas, defense motions to dismiss key counts were denied in late March, yet the next hearing was postponed until June 30 with no trial date set. Traders assign an 87.5 percent implied probability to Maduro avoiding conviction on every count because prosecutors confront substantial evidentiary hurdles proving the terrorism nexus, amid limited historical success for such prosecutions under the 2006 statute, ongoing disputes over defense resources, and the realistic prospect of plea negotiations or partial verdicts rather than unanimous guilty findings on all charges.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated$102,599 Vol.
$102,599 Vol.
Dec 31, 2027
$102,599 Vol.
$102,599 Vol.
Dec 31, 2027
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Nicolás Maduro is found guilty of all counts in the indictment 'UNITED STATES OF AMERICA V. NICOLAS MADURO MOROS[...]' (S4 11 Cr. 205 (AKH)) by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the initial verdict rendered by the court regarding Maduro’s indictment as of market creation (https://www.justice.gov/opa/media/1422326/dl).
If Nicolás Maduro is not found guilty of all counts in the referenced indictment by the resolution time, this market will resolve to “No.” This includes any outcome in which no trial occurs, or that does not result in a guilty verdict or a court-accepted guilty plea on all counts, such as acquittal on any count, partial conviction, mistrial, hung jury, or dismissal of any count.
The market will resolve according to the initial verdict rendered in this case. Any appeals will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the U.S. court system; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.U.S. authorities captured Nicolás Maduro in a January 2026 military operation and transferred him to New York for prosecution on federal charges including narco-terrorism conspiracy, cocaine importation, and weapons offenses. After entering not guilty pleas, defense motions to dismiss key counts were denied in late March, yet the next hearing was postponed until June 30 with no trial date set. Traders assign an 87.5 percent implied probability to Maduro avoiding conviction on every count because prosecutors confront substantial evidentiary hurdles proving the terrorism nexus, amid limited historical success for such prosecutions under the 2006 statute, ongoing disputes over defense resources, and the realistic prospect of plea negotiations or partial verdicts rather than unanimous guilty findings on all charges.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Nicolás Maduro is found guilty of all counts in the indictment 'UNITED STATES OF AMERICA V. NICOLAS MADURO MOROS[...]' (S4 11 Cr. 205 (AKH)) by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the initial verdict rendered by the court regarding Maduro’s indictment as of market creation (https://www.justice.gov/opa/media/1422326/dl).
If Nicolás Maduro is not found guilty of all counts in the referenced indictment by the resolution time, this market will resolve to “No.” This includes any outcome in which no trial occurs, or that does not result in a guilty verdict or a court-accepted guilty plea on all counts, such as acquittal on any count, partial conviction, mistrial, hung jury, or dismissal of any count.
The market will resolve according to the initial verdict rendered in this case. Any appeals will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the U.S. court system; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve based on the initial verdict rendered by the court regarding Maduro’s indictment as of market creation (https://www.justice.gov/opa/media/1422326/dl).
If Nicolás Maduro is not found guilty of all counts in the referenced indictment by the resolution time, this market will resolve to “No.” This includes any outcome in which no trial occurs, or that does not result in a guilty verdict or a court-accepted guilty plea on all counts, such as acquittal on any count, partial conviction, mistrial, hung jury, or dismissal of any count.
The market will resolve according to the initial verdict rendered in this case. Any appeals will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the U.S. court system; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Jan 4, 2026, 12:28 PM ET
Volume
$102,599End Date
Dec 31, 2027Market Opened
Jan 4, 2026, 12:28 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Nicolás Maduro is found guilty of all counts in the indictment 'UNITED STATES OF AMERICA V. NICOLAS MADURO MOROS[...]' (S4 11 Cr. 205 (AKH)) by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the initial verdict rendered by the court regarding Maduro’s indictment as of market creation (https://www.justice.gov/opa/media/1422326/dl).
If Nicolás Maduro is not found guilty of all counts in the referenced indictment by the resolution time, this market will resolve to “No.” This includes any outcome in which no trial occurs, or that does not result in a guilty verdict or a court-accepted guilty plea on all counts, such as acquittal on any count, partial conviction, mistrial, hung jury, or dismissal of any count.
The market will resolve according to the initial verdict rendered in this case. Any appeals will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the U.S. court system; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.U.S. authorities captured Nicolás Maduro in a January 2026 military operation and transferred him to New York for prosecution on federal charges including narco-terrorism conspiracy, cocaine importation, and weapons offenses. After entering not guilty pleas, defense motions to dismiss key counts were denied in late March, yet the next hearing was postponed until June 30 with no trial date set. Traders assign an 87.5 percent implied probability to Maduro avoiding conviction on every count because prosecutors confront substantial evidentiary hurdles proving the terrorism nexus, amid limited historical success for such prosecutions under the 2006 statute, ongoing disputes over defense resources, and the realistic prospect of plea negotiations or partial verdicts rather than unanimous guilty findings on all charges.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Nicolás Maduro is found guilty of all counts in the indictment 'UNITED STATES OF AMERICA V. NICOLAS MADURO MOROS[...]' (S4 11 Cr. 205 (AKH)) by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the initial verdict rendered by the court regarding Maduro’s indictment as of market creation (https://www.justice.gov/opa/media/1422326/dl).
If Nicolás Maduro is not found guilty of all counts in the referenced indictment by the resolution time, this market will resolve to “No.” This includes any outcome in which no trial occurs, or that does not result in a guilty verdict or a court-accepted guilty plea on all counts, such as acquittal on any count, partial conviction, mistrial, hung jury, or dismissal of any count.
The market will resolve according to the initial verdict rendered in this case. Any appeals will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the U.S. court system; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve based on the initial verdict rendered by the court regarding Maduro’s indictment as of market creation (https://www.justice.gov/opa/media/1422326/dl).
If Nicolás Maduro is not found guilty of all counts in the referenced indictment by the resolution time, this market will resolve to “No.” This includes any outcome in which no trial occurs, or that does not result in a guilty verdict or a court-accepted guilty plea on all counts, such as acquittal on any count, partial conviction, mistrial, hung jury, or dismissal of any count.
The market will resolve according to the initial verdict rendered in this case. Any appeals will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the U.S. court system; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$102,599End Date
Dec 31, 2027Market Opened
Jan 4, 2026, 12:28 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...U.S. authorities captured Nicolás Maduro in a January 2026 military operation and transferred him to New York for prosecution on federal charges including narco-terrorism conspiracy, cocaine importation, and weapons offenses. After entering not guilty pleas, defense motions to dismiss key counts were denied in late March, yet the next hearing was postponed until June 30 with no trial date set. Traders assign an 87.5 percent implied probability to Maduro avoiding conviction on every count because prosecutors confront substantial evidentiary hurdles proving the terrorism nexus, amid limited historical success for such prosecutions under the 2006 statute, ongoing disputes over defense resources, and the realistic prospect of plea negotiations or partial verdicts rather than unanimous guilty findings on all charges.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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