Recent Q1 2026 contraction of 0.8% and softening high-frequency indicators have anchored trader sentiment toward modest expansion in the current quarter, with market-implied odds clustering around the 0.0-0.5% and 1.5-2.0% ranges at 42.5% and 40.0% respectively. Subdued manufacturing momentum, moderating remittances, and elevated core inflation near 4.5% continue to weigh on domestic demand, while resilient U.S. import demand and formal employment trends provide offsetting support. The closely contested pricing reflects uncertainty over the pace of any rebound, with upcoming monthly industrial production and trade data through June serving as key catalysts that could shift probabilities across the narrow 0.5-2.0% band.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedMexico GDP growth in Q2 2026?
Mexico GDP growth in Q2 2026?
-0.5-0.0% 51%
0.5-1.0% 48%
1.5-2.0% 42%
1.0-1.5% 26%
NEW
NEW
Jul 30, 2026
<-0.5%
25%
-0.5-0.0%
28%
0.0-0.5%
47%
0.5-1.0%
26%
1.0-1.5%
26%
1.5-2.0%
42%
2.0-2.5%
11%
2.5%+
11%
-0.5-0.0% 51%
0.5-1.0% 48%
1.5-2.0% 42%
1.0-1.5% 26%
NEW
NEW
Jul 30, 2026
<-0.5%
$4 Vol.
25%
-0.5-0.0%
$24 Vol.
28%
0.0-0.5%
$11 Vol.
47%
0.5-1.0%
$6 Vol.
26%
1.0-1.5%
$2 Vol.
26%
1.5-2.0%
$0 Vol.
42%
2.0-2.5%
$0 Vol.
11%
2.5%+
$0 Vol.
11%
This market will resolve according to Mexico's Y/Y Growth Rate of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the "Timely Estimate of Quarterly GDP" release for Q2 of 2026, scheduled for release on July 30, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.Recent Q1 2026 contraction of 0.8% and softening high-frequency indicators have anchored trader sentiment toward modest expansion in the current quarter, with market-implied odds clustering around the 0.0-0.5% and 1.5-2.0% ranges at 42.5% and 40.0% respectively. Subdued manufacturing momentum, moderating remittances, and elevated core inflation near 4.5% continue to weigh on domestic demand, while resilient U.S. import demand and formal employment trends provide offsetting support. The closely contested pricing reflects uncertainty over the pace of any rebound, with upcoming monthly industrial production and trade data through June serving as key catalysts that could shift probabilities across the narrow 0.5-2.0% band.
This market will resolve according to Mexico's Y/Y Growth Rate of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the "Timely Estimate of Quarterly GDP" release for Q2 of 2026, scheduled for release on July 30, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: May 4, 2026, 11:35 AM ET
Volume
$47End Date
Jul 30, 2026Market Opened
May 4, 2026, 11:35 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to Mexico's Y/Y Growth Rate of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the "Timely Estimate of Quarterly GDP" release for Q2 of 2026, scheduled for release on July 30, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.Recent Q1 2026 contraction of 0.8% and softening high-frequency indicators have anchored trader sentiment toward modest expansion in the current quarter, with market-implied odds clustering around the 0.0-0.5% and 1.5-2.0% ranges at 42.5% and 40.0% respectively. Subdued manufacturing momentum, moderating remittances, and elevated core inflation near 4.5% continue to weigh on domestic demand, while resilient U.S. import demand and formal employment trends provide offsetting support. The closely contested pricing reflects uncertainty over the pace of any rebound, with upcoming monthly industrial production and trade data through June serving as key catalysts that could shift probabilities across the narrow 0.5-2.0% band.
This market will resolve according to Mexico's Y/Y Growth Rate of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the "Timely Estimate of Quarterly GDP" release for Q2 of 2026, scheduled for release on July 30, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$47End Date
Jul 30, 2026Market Opened
May 4, 2026, 11:35 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent Q1 2026 contraction of 0.8% and softening high-frequency indicators have anchored trader sentiment toward modest expansion in the current quarter, with market-implied odds clustering around the 0.0-0.5% and 1.5-2.0% ranges at 42.5% and 40.0% respectively. Subdued manufacturing momentum, moderating remittances, and elevated core inflation near 4.5% continue to weigh on domestic demand, while resilient U.S. import demand and formal employment trends provide offsetting support. The closely contested pricing reflects uncertainty over the pace of any rebound, with upcoming monthly industrial production and trade data through June serving as key catalysts that could shift probabilities across the narrow 0.5-2.0% band.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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