Abdul El-Sayed secured the Democratic nomination for Michigan’s open U.S. Senate seat in the August 4 primary by defeating Rep. Haley Stevens 48.5% to 47.5%, a margin well under one percentage point. The outcome reflected a tight contest between the progressive challenger, who drew support from voters seeking change from the party establishment, and the moderate incumbent-backed candidate, after state Sen. Mallory McMorrow withdrew earlier. With final tallies confirming fewer than 15,000 separating the top two finishers out of more than 1.5 million ballots, traders have converged on the sub-5% margin category. Late shifts in turnout among key Democratic blocs or additional precinct reporting could have altered the spread, yet the certified results locked in the narrow result.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedMichigan Democratic Senate Primary Margin of Victory
Michigan Democratic Senate Primary Margin of Victory
El-Sayed <5% 99.4%
El-Sayed 5–10% <1%
El-Sayed 25%+ <1%
El-Sayed 20–25% <1%
$212,896 Vol.
$212,896 Vol.
Aug 4, 2026
El-Sayed 25%+
<1%
El-Sayed 20–25%
<1%
El-Sayed 15–20%
<1%
El-Sayed 10–15%
<1%
El-Sayed 5–10%
<1%
El-Sayed <5%
99%
Stevens <5%
<1%
Stevens 5–10%
<1%
Stevens 10–15%
<1%
Stevens 15%+
<1%
El-Sayed <5% 99.4%
El-Sayed 5–10% <1%
El-Sayed 25%+ <1%
El-Sayed 20–25% <1%
$212,896 Vol.
$212,896 Vol.
Aug 4, 2026
El-Sayed 25%+
$13,319 Vol.
<1%
El-Sayed 20–25%
$10,054 Vol.
<1%
El-Sayed 15–20%
$24,923 Vol.
<1%
El-Sayed 10–15%
$51,744 Vol.
<1%
El-Sayed 5–10%
$60,603 Vol.
<1%
El-Sayed <5%
$21,178 Vol.
99%
Stevens <5%
$19,391 Vol.
<1%
Stevens 5–10%
$6,731 Vol.
<1%
Stevens 10–15%
$3,977 Vol.
<1%
Stevens 15%+
$976 Vol.
<1%
Primary elections in Michigan are scheduled to be held on August 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the Michigan Democratic Senate Primary.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Michigan, such as official statewide results published by the Michigan Secretary of State (https://www.michigan.gov/sos); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.Abdul El-Sayed secured the Democratic nomination for Michigan’s open U.S. Senate seat in the August 4 primary by defeating Rep. Haley Stevens 48.5% to 47.5%, a margin well under one percentage point. The outcome reflected a tight contest between the progressive challenger, who drew support from voters seeking change from the party establishment, and the moderate incumbent-backed candidate, after state Sen. Mallory McMorrow withdrew earlier. With final tallies confirming fewer than 15,000 separating the top two finishers out of more than 1.5 million ballots, traders have converged on the sub-5% margin category. Late shifts in turnout among key Democratic blocs or additional precinct reporting could have altered the spread, yet the certified results locked in the narrow result.
Primary elections in Michigan are scheduled to be held on August 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the Michigan Democratic Senate Primary.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Michigan, such as official statewide results published by the Michigan Secretary of State (https://www.michigan.gov/sos); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the Michigan Democratic Senate Primary.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Michigan, such as official statewide results published by the Michigan Secretary of State (https://www.michigan.gov/sos); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
Market Opened: Jul 6, 2026, 6:07 PM ET
Volume
$212,896End Date
Aug 4, 2026Market Opened
Jul 6, 2026, 6:07 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Primary elections in Michigan are scheduled to be held on August 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the Michigan Democratic Senate Primary.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Michigan, such as official statewide results published by the Michigan Secretary of State (https://www.michigan.gov/sos); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.Abdul El-Sayed secured the Democratic nomination for Michigan’s open U.S. Senate seat in the August 4 primary by defeating Rep. Haley Stevens 48.5% to 47.5%, a margin well under one percentage point. The outcome reflected a tight contest between the progressive challenger, who drew support from voters seeking change from the party establishment, and the moderate incumbent-backed candidate, after state Sen. Mallory McMorrow withdrew earlier. With final tallies confirming fewer than 15,000 separating the top two finishers out of more than 1.5 million ballots, traders have converged on the sub-5% margin category. Late shifts in turnout among key Democratic blocs or additional precinct reporting could have altered the spread, yet the certified results locked in the narrow result.
Primary elections in Michigan are scheduled to be held on August 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the Michigan Democratic Senate Primary.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Michigan, such as official statewide results published by the Michigan Secretary of State (https://www.michigan.gov/sos); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the Michigan Democratic Senate Primary.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Michigan, such as official statewide results published by the Michigan Secretary of State (https://www.michigan.gov/sos); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
Volume
$212,896End Date
Aug 4, 2026Market Opened
Jul 6, 2026, 6:07 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Abdul El-Sayed secured the Democratic nomination for Michigan’s open U.S. Senate seat in the August 4 primary by defeating Rep. Haley Stevens 48.5% to 47.5%, a margin well under one percentage point. The outcome reflected a tight contest between the progressive challenger, who drew support from voters seeking change from the party establishment, and the moderate incumbent-backed candidate, after state Sen. Mallory McMorrow withdrew earlier. With final tallies confirming fewer than 15,000 separating the top two finishers out of more than 1.5 million ballots, traders have converged on the sub-5% margin category. Late shifts in turnout among key Democratic blocs or additional precinct reporting could have altered the spread, yet the certified results locked in the narrow result.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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