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Politics·Primaries

NY-13 Democratic Primary Winner

icon for NY-13 Democratic Primary Winner
Politics·Primaries

NY-13 Democratic Primary Winner

Adriano Espaillat 71%

Darializa Avila Chevalier 29%

Oscar Romero 1.6%

Theo Chino-Tavarez <1%

Polymarket

$22,616 Vol.

Adriano Espaillat 71%

Darializa Avila Chevalier 29%

Oscar Romero 1.6%

Theo Chino-Tavarez <1%

Polymarket

$22,616 Vol.

Adriano Espaillat

$5,371 Vol.

71%

Darializa Avila Chevalier

$3,113 Vol.

29%

Oscar Romero

$5,217 Vol.

2%

Theo Chino-Tavarez

$1,890 Vol.

<1%

Megan Rodriguez

$2,042 Vol.

<1%

Jaleel Amador

$934 Vol.

<1%

James Felton Keith

$2,195 Vol.

<1%

Matt Miller

$1,855 Vol.

<1%

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the NY-13 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on June 23, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.Trader consensus favors incumbent Rep. Adriano Espaillat at 70.5% implied probability to win the NY-13 Democratic primary on June 23, driven by his strong incumbency advantages in the Latino-heavy Upper Manhattan and Bronx district, deep Dominican community ties, superior cash-on-hand exceeding $1 million, and recent endorsements from NYSAFLCIO and health professionals. Progressive challenger Darializa Avila Chevalier holds 28.5%, reflecting momentum from DSA, Justice Democrats, and Squad member backing, plus Q1 fundraising edge, after her campaign's late-March Upswing poll (released mid-April) showed Espaillat at 42% to her 28% among likely voters—highlighting soft incumbent support but trader doubt on the internal survey amid no newer polling. Oscar Romero trails at 1.6% with minor viability.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the NY-13 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on June 23, 2026.

If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/.

Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Volume
$22,616
End Date
Jun 23, 2026
Market Opened
Dec 19, 2025, 3:59 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the NY-13 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on June 23, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the NY-13 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on June 23, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.Trader consensus favors incumbent Rep. Adriano Espaillat at 70.5% implied probability to win the NY-13 Democratic primary on June 23, driven by his strong incumbency advantages in the Latino-heavy Upper Manhattan and Bronx district, deep Dominican community ties, superior cash-on-hand exceeding $1 million, and recent endorsements from NYSAFLCIO and health professionals. Progressive challenger Darializa Avila Chevalier holds 28.5%, reflecting momentum from DSA, Justice Democrats, and Squad member backing, plus Q1 fundraising edge, after her campaign's late-March Upswing poll (released mid-April) showed Espaillat at 42% to her 28% among likely voters—highlighting soft incumbent support but trader doubt on the internal survey amid no newer polling. Oscar Romero trails at 1.6% with minor viability.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the NY-13 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on June 23, 2026.

If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/.

Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Volume
$22,616
End Date
Jun 23, 2026
Market Opened
Dec 19, 2025, 3:59 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the NY-13 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on June 23, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"NY-13 Democratic Primary Winner" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 8 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Adriano Espaillat" at 71%, followed by "Darializa Avila Chevalier" at 28%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 71¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 71% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "NY-13 Democratic Primary Winner" has generated $22.6K in total trading volume since the market launched on Dec 19, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "NY-13 Democratic Primary Winner," browse the 8 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "NY-13 Democratic Primary Winner" is "Adriano Espaillat" at 71%, meaning the market assigns a 71% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Darializa Avila Chevalier" at 28%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "NY-13 Democratic Primary Winner" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.