David Brock Smith’s position as a sitting state senator since 2023 gives him a clear edge in the May 19 Republican primary for Oregon’s U.S. Senate nomination, where traders assign him an 80% probability. His prior service in the state House and emphasis on legislative record and rural advocacy have drawn support in a field that includes seven candidates. Jo Rae Perkins, the previous GOP nominee in 2020 and 2022, holds the next-highest share at 18% but has faced repeated primary defeats and limited fundraising. The remaining contenders trail with under 2% each. With ballots already mailed and the primary just days away, the market pricing reflects Smith’s institutional advantages and the absence of major late developments that would alter the current distribution of support.