US President Donald Trump brokered a three-day ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine from May 9 to 11, 2026, tied to Russia's Victory Day observances and paired with a planned exchange of 1,000 prisoners of war from each side. Both governments confirmed the temporary halt to kinetic activity and completed an initial partial swap of 205 prisoners each. This development follows earlier trilateral talks in Geneva and Abu Dhabi that produced limited progress amid stalled negotiations. Russian officials have indicated no urgency to resume broader talks, while Ukrainian representatives continue to emphasize humanitarian priorities and pressure for concessions. Traders monitor whether the recent pause signals momentum toward a more durable agreement or remains an isolated event within the ongoing conflict.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedRussia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by...?
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by...?
$657,091 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
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October 31
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December 31
51%
$657,091 Vol.
May 31
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3%
June 30
$197,643 Vol.
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October 31
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December 31
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This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is a ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A ceasefire agreement refers to any mutually-agreed suspension of direct military engagement between Russia and Ukraine, which is either officially announced by both countries or confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting to have been mutually agreed by both countries.
A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, political framework, truce, or humanitarian pause will qualify if it includes a mutually agreed suspension of direct military engagement, to be effective on a specified date. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered a ceasefire agreement.
Only agreements which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Agreements which only apply to specific conflict categories (e.g. restrictions on certain target categories or certain locations) will not qualify.
If a qualifying agreement is officially reached before this market’s end date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire agreement officially takes effect after that date.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of Russia and Ukraine and a consensus of credible reporting.US President Donald Trump brokered a three-day ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine from May 9 to 11, 2026, tied to Russia's Victory Day observances and paired with a planned exchange of 1,000 prisoners of war from each side. Both governments confirmed the temporary halt to kinetic activity and completed an initial partial swap of 205 prisoners each. This development follows earlier trilateral talks in Geneva and Abu Dhabi that produced limited progress amid stalled negotiations. Russian officials have indicated no urgency to resume broader talks, while Ukrainian representatives continue to emphasize humanitarian priorities and pressure for concessions. Traders monitor whether the recent pause signals momentum toward a more durable agreement or remains an isolated event within the ongoing conflict.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is a ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A ceasefire agreement refers to any mutually-agreed suspension of direct military engagement between Russia and Ukraine, which is either officially announced by both countries or confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting to have been mutually agreed by both countries.
A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, political framework, truce, or humanitarian pause will qualify if it includes a mutually agreed suspension of direct military engagement, to be effective on a specified date. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered a ceasefire agreement.
Only agreements which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Agreements which only apply to specific conflict categories (e.g. restrictions on certain target categories or certain locations) will not qualify.
If a qualifying agreement is officially reached before this market’s end date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire agreement officially takes effect after that date.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of Russia and Ukraine and a consensus of credible reporting.
A ceasefire agreement refers to any mutually-agreed suspension of direct military engagement between Russia and Ukraine, which is either officially announced by both countries or confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting to have been mutually agreed by both countries.
A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, political framework, truce, or humanitarian pause will qualify if it includes a mutually agreed suspension of direct military engagement, to be effective on a specified date. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered a ceasefire agreement.
Only agreements which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Agreements which only apply to specific conflict categories (e.g. restrictions on certain target categories or certain locations) will not qualify.
If a qualifying agreement is officially reached before this market’s end date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire agreement officially takes effect after that date.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of Russia and Ukraine and a consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: May 12, 2026, 11:28 PM ET
Volume
$657,091End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
May 12, 2026, 11:28 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is a ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A ceasefire agreement refers to any mutually-agreed suspension of direct military engagement between Russia and Ukraine, which is either officially announced by both countries or confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting to have been mutually agreed by both countries.
A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, political framework, truce, or humanitarian pause will qualify if it includes a mutually agreed suspension of direct military engagement, to be effective on a specified date. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered a ceasefire agreement.
Only agreements which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Agreements which only apply to specific conflict categories (e.g. restrictions on certain target categories or certain locations) will not qualify.
If a qualifying agreement is officially reached before this market’s end date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire agreement officially takes effect after that date.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of Russia and Ukraine and a consensus of credible reporting.US President Donald Trump brokered a three-day ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine from May 9 to 11, 2026, tied to Russia's Victory Day observances and paired with a planned exchange of 1,000 prisoners of war from each side. Both governments confirmed the temporary halt to kinetic activity and completed an initial partial swap of 205 prisoners each. This development follows earlier trilateral talks in Geneva and Abu Dhabi that produced limited progress amid stalled negotiations. Russian officials have indicated no urgency to resume broader talks, while Ukrainian representatives continue to emphasize humanitarian priorities and pressure for concessions. Traders monitor whether the recent pause signals momentum toward a more durable agreement or remains an isolated event within the ongoing conflict.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is a ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A ceasefire agreement refers to any mutually-agreed suspension of direct military engagement between Russia and Ukraine, which is either officially announced by both countries or confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting to have been mutually agreed by both countries.
A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, political framework, truce, or humanitarian pause will qualify if it includes a mutually agreed suspension of direct military engagement, to be effective on a specified date. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered a ceasefire agreement.
Only agreements which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Agreements which only apply to specific conflict categories (e.g. restrictions on certain target categories or certain locations) will not qualify.
If a qualifying agreement is officially reached before this market’s end date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire agreement officially takes effect after that date.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of Russia and Ukraine and a consensus of credible reporting.
A ceasefire agreement refers to any mutually-agreed suspension of direct military engagement between Russia and Ukraine, which is either officially announced by both countries or confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting to have been mutually agreed by both countries.
A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, political framework, truce, or humanitarian pause will qualify if it includes a mutually agreed suspension of direct military engagement, to be effective on a specified date. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered a ceasefire agreement.
Only agreements which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Agreements which only apply to specific conflict categories (e.g. restrictions on certain target categories or certain locations) will not qualify.
If a qualifying agreement is officially reached before this market’s end date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire agreement officially takes effect after that date.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of Russia and Ukraine and a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$657,091End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
May 12, 2026, 11:28 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...US President Donald Trump brokered a three-day ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine from May 9 to 11, 2026, tied to Russia's Victory Day observances and paired with a planned exchange of 1,000 prisoners of war from each side. Both governments confirmed the temporary halt to kinetic activity and completed an initial partial swap of 205 prisoners each. This development follows earlier trilateral talks in Geneva and Abu Dhabi that produced limited progress amid stalled negotiations. Russian officials have indicated no urgency to resume broader talks, while Ukrainian representatives continue to emphasize humanitarian priorities and pressure for concessions. Traders monitor whether the recent pause signals momentum toward a more durable agreement or remains an isolated event within the ongoing conflict.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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