The SAVE Act (H.R. 22) passed the House multiple times, including versions in April 2025 and February 2026, yet remains stalled in the Senate with no path to enactment before year-end. Senate rules require 60 votes to overcome a filibuster, but Republicans hold 53 seats and have secured no Democratic support despite repeated attempts to attach the measure to must-pass vehicles such as the NDAA or budget reconciliation. Senate leadership has signaled the bill is dead on arrival, and recent procedural maneuvers through July 2026 produced no breakthrough. This procedural gridlock and narrow partisan margin explain the 93.5% trader-implied probability against the bill becoming law in 2026.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated7% chance
$190,044 Vol.
$190,044 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
7% chance
$190,044 Vol.
$190,044 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Save Act (H.R.22) is passed by both chambers of the U.S. Congress and signed into law by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution sources for this market will be Congress.gov’s legislation tracker (https://www.congress.gov/bill/119th-congress/house-bill/22) and other official information from the government of the United States; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The SAVE Act (H.R. 22) passed the House multiple times, including versions in April 2025 and February 2026, yet remains stalled in the Senate with no path to enactment before year-end. Senate rules require 60 votes to overcome a filibuster, but Republicans hold 53 seats and have secured no Democratic support despite repeated attempts to attach the measure to must-pass vehicles such as the NDAA or budget reconciliation. Senate leadership has signaled the bill is dead on arrival, and recent procedural maneuvers through July 2026 produced no breakthrough. This procedural gridlock and narrow partisan margin explain the 93.5% trader-implied probability against the bill becoming law in 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Save Act (H.R.22) is passed by both chambers of the U.S. Congress and signed into law by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution sources for this market will be Congress.gov’s legislation tracker (https://www.congress.gov/bill/119th-congress/house-bill/22) and other official information from the government of the United States; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be Congress.gov’s legislation tracker (https://www.congress.gov/bill/119th-congress/house-bill/22) and other official information from the government of the United States; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Feb 3, 2026, 6:20 PM ET
Volume
$190,044End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Feb 3, 2026, 6:20 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Save Act (H.R.22) is passed by both chambers of the U.S. Congress and signed into law by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution sources for this market will be Congress.gov’s legislation tracker (https://www.congress.gov/bill/119th-congress/house-bill/22) and other official information from the government of the United States; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The SAVE Act (H.R. 22) passed the House multiple times, including versions in April 2025 and February 2026, yet remains stalled in the Senate with no path to enactment before year-end. Senate rules require 60 votes to overcome a filibuster, but Republicans hold 53 seats and have secured no Democratic support despite repeated attempts to attach the measure to must-pass vehicles such as the NDAA or budget reconciliation. Senate leadership has signaled the bill is dead on arrival, and recent procedural maneuvers through July 2026 produced no breakthrough. This procedural gridlock and narrow partisan margin explain the 93.5% trader-implied probability against the bill becoming law in 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Save Act (H.R.22) is passed by both chambers of the U.S. Congress and signed into law by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution sources for this market will be Congress.gov’s legislation tracker (https://www.congress.gov/bill/119th-congress/house-bill/22) and other official information from the government of the United States; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be Congress.gov’s legislation tracker (https://www.congress.gov/bill/119th-congress/house-bill/22) and other official information from the government of the United States; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$190,044End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Feb 3, 2026, 6:20 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The SAVE Act (H.R. 22) passed the House multiple times, including versions in April 2025 and February 2026, yet remains stalled in the Senate with no path to enactment before year-end. Senate rules require 60 votes to overcome a filibuster, but Republicans hold 53 seats and have secured no Democratic support despite repeated attempts to attach the measure to must-pass vehicles such as the NDAA or budget reconciliation. Senate leadership has signaled the bill is dead on arrival, and recent procedural maneuvers through July 2026 produced no breakthrough. This procedural gridlock and narrow partisan margin explain the 93.5% trader-implied probability against the bill becoming law in 2026.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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