The 93.5% implied probability that H.R. 22 (SAVE Act) will not be signed into law in 2026 stems from repeated Senate inaction despite multiple House passages, most recently in February 2026 by narrow margins such as 218-213. Republicans control 53 Senate seats, but the measure faces a 60-vote filibuster threshold and has not secured the bipartisan support needed for cloture. Efforts to embed the citizenship-proof requirements in the NDAA, budget reconciliation, or other must-pass vehicles through mid-2026 have stalled without Senate floor success. With the 2026 midterms approaching and legislative calendars tightening, procedural barriers and the absence of a viable path to enactment continue to shape trader expectations for the remainder of the year.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated7% chance
$190,044 Vol.
$190,044 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
7% chance
$190,044 Vol.
$190,044 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Save Act (H.R.22) is passed by both chambers of the U.S. Congress and signed into law by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution sources for this market will be Congress.gov’s legislation tracker (https://www.congress.gov/bill/119th-congress/house-bill/22) and other official information from the government of the United States; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The 93.5% implied probability that H.R. 22 (SAVE Act) will not be signed into law in 2026 stems from repeated Senate inaction despite multiple House passages, most recently in February 2026 by narrow margins such as 218-213. Republicans control 53 Senate seats, but the measure faces a 60-vote filibuster threshold and has not secured the bipartisan support needed for cloture. Efforts to embed the citizenship-proof requirements in the NDAA, budget reconciliation, or other must-pass vehicles through mid-2026 have stalled without Senate floor success. With the 2026 midterms approaching and legislative calendars tightening, procedural barriers and the absence of a viable path to enactment continue to shape trader expectations for the remainder of the year.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Save Act (H.R.22) is passed by both chambers of the U.S. Congress and signed into law by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution sources for this market will be Congress.gov’s legislation tracker (https://www.congress.gov/bill/119th-congress/house-bill/22) and other official information from the government of the United States; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be Congress.gov’s legislation tracker (https://www.congress.gov/bill/119th-congress/house-bill/22) and other official information from the government of the United States; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Feb 3, 2026, 6:20 PM ET
Volume
$190,044End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Feb 3, 2026, 6:20 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Save Act (H.R.22) is passed by both chambers of the U.S. Congress and signed into law by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution sources for this market will be Congress.gov’s legislation tracker (https://www.congress.gov/bill/119th-congress/house-bill/22) and other official information from the government of the United States; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The 93.5% implied probability that H.R. 22 (SAVE Act) will not be signed into law in 2026 stems from repeated Senate inaction despite multiple House passages, most recently in February 2026 by narrow margins such as 218-213. Republicans control 53 Senate seats, but the measure faces a 60-vote filibuster threshold and has not secured the bipartisan support needed for cloture. Efforts to embed the citizenship-proof requirements in the NDAA, budget reconciliation, or other must-pass vehicles through mid-2026 have stalled without Senate floor success. With the 2026 midterms approaching and legislative calendars tightening, procedural barriers and the absence of a viable path to enactment continue to shape trader expectations for the remainder of the year.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Save Act (H.R.22) is passed by both chambers of the U.S. Congress and signed into law by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution sources for this market will be Congress.gov’s legislation tracker (https://www.congress.gov/bill/119th-congress/house-bill/22) and other official information from the government of the United States; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be Congress.gov’s legislation tracker (https://www.congress.gov/bill/119th-congress/house-bill/22) and other official information from the government of the United States; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$190,044End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Feb 3, 2026, 6:20 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The 93.5% implied probability that H.R. 22 (SAVE Act) will not be signed into law in 2026 stems from repeated Senate inaction despite multiple House passages, most recently in February 2026 by narrow margins such as 218-213. Republicans control 53 Senate seats, but the measure faces a 60-vote filibuster threshold and has not secured the bipartisan support needed for cloture. Efforts to embed the citizenship-proof requirements in the NDAA, budget reconciliation, or other must-pass vehicles through mid-2026 have stalled without Senate floor success. With the 2026 midterms approaching and legislative calendars tightening, procedural barriers and the absence of a viable path to enactment continue to shape trader expectations for the remainder of the year.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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