Traders assign Google an 84% implied probability as the second-best AI lab by end of September, reflecting its recent large language model releases, benchmark gains, and deep integration across search and cloud platforms that have strengthened competitive positioning. This consensus stands in contrast to OpenAI at 1.6%, Anthropic at 1.1%, and Meta at 6.6%, where slower capability demonstrations or regulatory scrutiny appear to have tempered sentiment. With resolution days away, any final model updates, safety evaluations, or partnership announcements could still influence outcomes, though the current market-implied odds indicate strong trader conviction around Google's momentum in the crowded AI landscape.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedGoogle 84%
Meta 7.0%
Moonshot 2.1%
Alibaba 1.9%
$111,545 Vol.
$111,545 Vol.
Sep 30, 2026
84%
Meta
7%
Moonshot
2%
Alibaba
2%
DeepSeek
2%
OpenAI
2%
Anthropic
1%
Xiaomi
1%
SpaceXAI
1%
Baidu
1%
Z.ai
<1%
Thinky
<1%
Amazon
<1%
ByteDance
<1%
Nvidia
<1%
MiniMax
<1%
Mistral
<1%
Meituan
<1%
Tencent
<1%
StepFun
<1%
Microsoft
<1%
Google 84%
Meta 7.0%
Moonshot 2.1%
Alibaba 1.9%
$111,545 Vol.
$111,545 Vol.
Sep 30, 2026
$37,152 Vol.
84%
Meta
$13,351 Vol.
7%
Moonshot
$3,929 Vol.
2%
Alibaba
$14,784 Vol.
2%
DeepSeek
$3,881 Vol.
2%
OpenAI
$8,244 Vol.
2%
Anthropic
$5,421 Vol.
1%
Xiaomi
$3,096 Vol.
1%
SpaceXAI
$3,887 Vol.
1%
Baidu
$2,229 Vol.
1%
Z.ai
$3,777 Vol.
<1%
Thinky
$1,494 Vol.
<1%
Amazon
$534 Vol.
<1%
ByteDance
$1,128 Vol.
<1%
Nvidia
$1,430 Vol.
<1%
MiniMax
$1,452 Vol.
<1%
Mistral
$1,442 Vol.
<1%
Meituan
$1,024 Vol.
<1%
Tencent
$1,507 Vol.
<1%
StepFun
$477 Vol.
<1%
Microsoft
$1,306 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Traders assign Google an 84% implied probability as the second-best AI lab by end of September, reflecting its recent large language model releases, benchmark gains, and deep integration across search and cloud platforms that have strengthened competitive positioning. This consensus stands in contrast to OpenAI at 1.6%, Anthropic at 1.1%, and Meta at 6.6%, where slower capability demonstrations or regulatory scrutiny appear to have tempered sentiment. With resolution days away, any final model updates, safety evaluations, or partnership announcements could still influence outcomes, though the current market-implied odds indicate strong trader conviction around Google's momentum in the crowded AI landscape.
This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Market Opened: Jul 24, 2026, 8:03 PM ET
Volume
$111,545End Date
Sep 30, 2026Market Opened
Jul 24, 2026, 8:03 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Traders assign Google an 84% implied probability as the second-best AI lab by end of September, reflecting its recent large language model releases, benchmark gains, and deep integration across search and cloud platforms that have strengthened competitive positioning. This consensus stands in contrast to OpenAI at 1.6%, Anthropic at 1.1%, and Meta at 6.6%, where slower capability demonstrations or regulatory scrutiny appear to have tempered sentiment. With resolution days away, any final model updates, safety evaluations, or partnership announcements could still influence outcomes, though the current market-implied odds indicate strong trader conviction around Google's momentum in the crowded AI landscape.
This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Volume
$111,545End Date
Sep 30, 2026Market Opened
Jul 24, 2026, 8:03 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Traders assign Google an 84% implied probability as the second-best AI lab by end of September, reflecting its recent large language model releases, benchmark gains, and deep integration across search and cloud platforms that have strengthened competitive positioning. This consensus stands in contrast to OpenAI at 1.6%, Anthropic at 1.1%, and Meta at 6.6%, where slower capability demonstrations or regulatory scrutiny appear to have tempered sentiment. With resolution days away, any final model updates, safety evaluations, or partnership announcements could still influence outcomes, though the current market-implied odds indicate strong trader conviction around Google's momentum in the crowded AI landscape.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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