Moonshot’s July 2026 release of the 2.8-trillion-parameter Kimi K3 open-weight model, featuring native Agent Swarm support for up to 300 parallel sub-agents, long-context tool use, and strong results on coding and multi-step agent benchmarks, has driven overwhelming trader consensus at 87.9% implied probability for third place on the arena.ai Agent Arena Labs leaderboard by September 30. The model’s cost-efficient performance relative to closed U.S. systems, combined with rapid developer adoption through Kimi Code CLI and desktop agents, has elevated Moonshot’s agentic capabilities ahead of the resolution. Lower odds for Z.ai, Anthropic, Google, and others reflect thinner recent momentum in agent-specific evaluations, though any late leaderboard shifts from new releases could still alter final rankings.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedMoonshot 87.9%
Z.ai 4.7%
Google 3.0%
SpaceXAI 2.8%
$54,348 Vol.
$54,348 Vol.
Sep 30, 2026
Moonshot
88%
Z.ai
5%
3%
SpaceXAI
3%
Meta
3%
Mistral
3%
DeepSeek
3%
Anthropic
3%
Alibaba
2%
OpenAI
2%
Amazon
1%
Nvidia
1%
Xiaomi
1%
Microsoft
<1%
Baidu
<1%
MiniMax
<1%
ByteDance
<1%
Meituan
<1%
Moonshot 87.9%
Z.ai 4.7%
Google 3.0%
SpaceXAI 2.8%
$54,348 Vol.
$54,348 Vol.
Sep 30, 2026
Moonshot
$34,742 Vol.
88%
Z.ai
$2,812 Vol.
5%
$482 Vol.
3%
SpaceXAI
$584 Vol.
3%
Meta
$409 Vol.
3%
Mistral
$610 Vol.
3%
DeepSeek
$471 Vol.
3%
Anthropic
$2,459 Vol.
3%
Alibaba
$1,087 Vol.
2%
OpenAI
$7,320 Vol.
2%
Amazon
$414 Vol.
1%
Nvidia
$470 Vol.
1%
Xiaomi
$388 Vol.
1%
Microsoft
$408 Vol.
<1%
Baidu
$609 Vol.
<1%
MiniMax
$373 Vol.
<1%
ByteDance
$393 Vol.
<1%
Meituan
$318 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the third-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard when the table under "Agent Arena" filtered for "Labs" is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Agent Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Moonshot’s July 2026 release of the 2.8-trillion-parameter Kimi K3 open-weight model, featuring native Agent Swarm support for up to 300 parallel sub-agents, long-context tool use, and strong results on coding and multi-step agent benchmarks, has driven overwhelming trader consensus at 87.9% implied probability for third place on the arena.ai Agent Arena Labs leaderboard by September 30. The model’s cost-efficient performance relative to closed U.S. systems, combined with rapid developer adoption through Kimi Code CLI and desktop agents, has elevated Moonshot’s agentic capabilities ahead of the resolution. Lower odds for Z.ai, Anthropic, Google, and others reflect thinner recent momentum in agent-specific evaluations, though any late leaderboard shifts from new releases could still alter final rankings.
This market will resolve according to the third-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard when the table under "Agent Arena" filtered for "Labs" is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Agent Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Agent Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Market Opened: Aug 12, 2026, 7:40 PM ET
Volume
$54,348End Date
Sep 30, 2026Market Opened
Aug 12, 2026, 7:40 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the third-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard when the table under "Agent Arena" filtered for "Labs" is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Agent Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Moonshot’s July 2026 release of the 2.8-trillion-parameter Kimi K3 open-weight model, featuring native Agent Swarm support for up to 300 parallel sub-agents, long-context tool use, and strong results on coding and multi-step agent benchmarks, has driven overwhelming trader consensus at 87.9% implied probability for third place on the arena.ai Agent Arena Labs leaderboard by September 30. The model’s cost-efficient performance relative to closed U.S. systems, combined with rapid developer adoption through Kimi Code CLI and desktop agents, has elevated Moonshot’s agentic capabilities ahead of the resolution. Lower odds for Z.ai, Anthropic, Google, and others reflect thinner recent momentum in agent-specific evaluations, though any late leaderboard shifts from new releases could still alter final rankings.
This market will resolve according to the third-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard when the table under "Agent Arena" filtered for "Labs" is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Agent Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Agent Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Volume
$54,348End Date
Sep 30, 2026Market Opened
Aug 12, 2026, 7:40 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Moonshot’s July 2026 release of the 2.8-trillion-parameter Kimi K3 open-weight model, featuring native Agent Swarm support for up to 300 parallel sub-agents, long-context tool use, and strong results on coding and multi-step agent benchmarks, has driven overwhelming trader consensus at 87.9% implied probability for third place on the arena.ai Agent Arena Labs leaderboard by September 30. The model’s cost-efficient performance relative to closed U.S. systems, combined with rapid developer adoption through Kimi Code CLI and desktop agents, has elevated Moonshot’s agentic capabilities ahead of the resolution. Lower odds for Z.ai, Anthropic, Google, and others reflect thinner recent momentum in agent-specific evaluations, though any late leaderboard shifts from new releases could still alter final rankings.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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