Recent U.S. economic data have produced tightly clustered trader-implied probabilities for Q2 2026 real GDP growth, with the 2.0–2.5 percent band holding a modest lead at 25.5 percent. The Q1 advance estimate printed at 2.0 percent annualized, accelerating from 0.5 percent in Q4 2025 but below consensus, as a surge in AI-driven business fixed investment was offset by softer consumer spending and a wider trade deficit. Elevated April CPI at 3.8 percent year-over-year, fueled by energy-price shocks linked to Middle East tensions, has tempered expectations for near-term monetary easing and weighed on household demand. Atlanta Fed GDPNow nowcasts remain near 3.7 percent, yet cooling labor-market signals and tariff pass-through concerns continue to cap upside bets. Key upcoming releases, including the May 28 Q1 second estimate and May retail sales and ISM surveys, represent the primary swing factors that could reprice the distribution across the 1.5–3.5 percent range.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedUS GDP growth in Q2 2026?
US GDP growth in Q2 2026?
2.0–2.5% 26%
2.5–3.0% 21%
1.5–2.0% 20%
3.0–3.5% 16%
NEW
NEW
Jul 30, 2026
<1.0%
8%
1.0–1.5%
9%
1.5–2.0%
20%
2.0–2.5%
26%
2.5–3.0%
21%
3.0–3.5%
16%
≥3.5%
7%
2.0–2.5% 26%
2.5–3.0% 21%
1.5–2.0% 20%
3.0–3.5% 16%
NEW
NEW
Jul 30, 2026
<1.0%
$593 Vol.
8%
1.0–1.5%
$353 Vol.
9%
1.5–2.0%
$293 Vol.
20%
2.0–2.5%
$536 Vol.
26%
2.5–3.0%
$420 Vol.
21%
3.0–3.5%
$661 Vol.
16%
≥3.5%
$509 Vol.
7%
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP "Advance Estimate" release for Q2 of 2026, scheduled for July 30, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: data in the first available GDP report is labelled by the BEA as an "Advance Estimate". The data found in the advance estimate will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the advance estimate is not released, this market will resolve based on the first officially published figure for real GDP for the specified quarter (e.g., the ‘second’ or ‘third’ estimate, etc.), as reported by the BEA. If no official estimate is released by the date the next quarter's advanced estimate is scheduled to be published, this market will resolve based on the most recent previous figure released by the BEA.Recent U.S. economic data have produced tightly clustered trader-implied probabilities for Q2 2026 real GDP growth, with the 2.0–2.5 percent band holding a modest lead at 25.5 percent. The Q1 advance estimate printed at 2.0 percent annualized, accelerating from 0.5 percent in Q4 2025 but below consensus, as a surge in AI-driven business fixed investment was offset by softer consumer spending and a wider trade deficit. Elevated April CPI at 3.8 percent year-over-year, fueled by energy-price shocks linked to Middle East tensions, has tempered expectations for near-term monetary easing and weighed on household demand. Atlanta Fed GDPNow nowcasts remain near 3.7 percent, yet cooling labor-market signals and tariff pass-through concerns continue to cap upside bets. Key upcoming releases, including the May 28 Q1 second estimate and May retail sales and ISM surveys, represent the primary swing factors that could reprice the distribution across the 1.5–3.5 percent range.
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP "Advance Estimate" release for Q2 of 2026, scheduled for July 30, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: data in the first available GDP report is labelled by the BEA as an "Advance Estimate". The data found in the advance estimate will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the advance estimate is not released, this market will resolve based on the first officially published figure for real GDP for the specified quarter (e.g., the ‘second’ or ‘third’ estimate, etc.), as reported by the BEA. If no official estimate is released by the date the next quarter's advanced estimate is scheduled to be published, this market will resolve based on the most recent previous figure released by the BEA.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: data in the first available GDP report is labelled by the BEA as an "Advance Estimate". The data found in the advance estimate will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the advance estimate is not released, this market will resolve based on the first officially published figure for real GDP for the specified quarter (e.g., the ‘second’ or ‘third’ estimate, etc.), as reported by the BEA. If no official estimate is released by the date the next quarter's advanced estimate is scheduled to be published, this market will resolve based on the most recent previous figure released by the BEA.
Market Opened: Apr 30, 2026, 2:25 PM ET
Volume
$3,365End Date
Jul 30, 2026Market Opened
Apr 30, 2026, 2:25 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP "Advance Estimate" release for Q2 of 2026, scheduled for July 30, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: data in the first available GDP report is labelled by the BEA as an "Advance Estimate". The data found in the advance estimate will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the advance estimate is not released, this market will resolve based on the first officially published figure for real GDP for the specified quarter (e.g., the ‘second’ or ‘third’ estimate, etc.), as reported by the BEA. If no official estimate is released by the date the next quarter's advanced estimate is scheduled to be published, this market will resolve based on the most recent previous figure released by the BEA.Recent U.S. economic data have produced tightly clustered trader-implied probabilities for Q2 2026 real GDP growth, with the 2.0–2.5 percent band holding a modest lead at 25.5 percent. The Q1 advance estimate printed at 2.0 percent annualized, accelerating from 0.5 percent in Q4 2025 but below consensus, as a surge in AI-driven business fixed investment was offset by softer consumer spending and a wider trade deficit. Elevated April CPI at 3.8 percent year-over-year, fueled by energy-price shocks linked to Middle East tensions, has tempered expectations for near-term monetary easing and weighed on household demand. Atlanta Fed GDPNow nowcasts remain near 3.7 percent, yet cooling labor-market signals and tariff pass-through concerns continue to cap upside bets. Key upcoming releases, including the May 28 Q1 second estimate and May retail sales and ISM surveys, represent the primary swing factors that could reprice the distribution across the 1.5–3.5 percent range.
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP "Advance Estimate" release for Q2 of 2026, scheduled for July 30, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: data in the first available GDP report is labelled by the BEA as an "Advance Estimate". The data found in the advance estimate will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the advance estimate is not released, this market will resolve based on the first officially published figure for real GDP for the specified quarter (e.g., the ‘second’ or ‘third’ estimate, etc.), as reported by the BEA. If no official estimate is released by the date the next quarter's advanced estimate is scheduled to be published, this market will resolve based on the most recent previous figure released by the BEA.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: data in the first available GDP report is labelled by the BEA as an "Advance Estimate". The data found in the advance estimate will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the advance estimate is not released, this market will resolve based on the first officially published figure for real GDP for the specified quarter (e.g., the ‘second’ or ‘third’ estimate, etc.), as reported by the BEA. If no official estimate is released by the date the next quarter's advanced estimate is scheduled to be published, this market will resolve based on the most recent previous figure released by the BEA.
Volume
$3,365End Date
Jul 30, 2026Market Opened
Apr 30, 2026, 2:25 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent U.S. economic data have produced tightly clustered trader-implied probabilities for Q2 2026 real GDP growth, with the 2.0–2.5 percent band holding a modest lead at 25.5 percent. The Q1 advance estimate printed at 2.0 percent annualized, accelerating from 0.5 percent in Q4 2025 but below consensus, as a surge in AI-driven business fixed investment was offset by softer consumer spending and a wider trade deficit. Elevated April CPI at 3.8 percent year-over-year, fueled by energy-price shocks linked to Middle East tensions, has tempered expectations for near-term monetary easing and weighed on household demand. Atlanta Fed GDPNow nowcasts remain near 3.7 percent, yet cooling labor-market signals and tariff pass-through concerns continue to cap upside bets. Key upcoming releases, including the May 28 Q1 second estimate and May retail sales and ISM surveys, represent the primary swing factors that could reprice the distribution across the 1.5–3.5 percent range.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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