Trader consensus heavily favors "No" (85.5% implied probability) because the NRC's full licensing pathway—from construction permit to operating license—typically spans several years even for advanced reactors. Recent milestones, such as TerraPower's Natrium receiving its first commercial construction permit in March 2026 and ongoing Part 53 framework finalization for advanced designs, have accelerated early-stage reviews but have not produced operating licenses. Proposed July 2026 NRC rulemaking on licensing modernization aims to cut timelines and costs, yet public comment periods and implementation mean meaningful impact will arrive after 2026. DOE pilot programs targeting test-reactor criticality by mid-2026 rely on separate authorizations rather than NRC commercial licenses. With few applications nearing the final operating-license stage and historical precedents showing multi-year gaps between permits and full approval, traders see limited near-term catalysts capable of flipping the outcome before year-end.