Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects an 81.5% implied probability for "No" on a U.S. license for a new nuclear reactor in 2026, driven by the Nuclear Regulatory Commission's (NRC) historically lengthy review processes despite recent streamlining efforts. In March 2026, the NRC issued its first commercial construction permit in a decade to TerraPower's US SFR Owner for a sodium-cooled fast reactor in Wyoming, and unveiled Part 53—a risk-informed licensing framework for advanced reactors effective April 29—aimed at accelerating approvals. However, no combined operating licenses (COLs) or equivalents have been granted for new builds this year, with full timelines typically spanning 18–42 months amid safety reviews and stakeholder input. With seven months left, traders anticipate delays, eyeing potential DOE-vetted reactor pathways and microreactor rules as year-end catalysts that may not resolve in time.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated$22,810 Vol.
$22,810 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
$22,810 Vol.
$22,810 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) issues a new combined license (COL) for the construction and operation of a nuclear power plant by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A combined license must be clearly identified as such and documented in official NRC releases. Only initial issuances count; amendments, renewals, or partial approvals do not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects an 81.5% implied probability for "No" on a U.S. license for a new nuclear reactor in 2026, driven by the Nuclear Regulatory Commission's (NRC) historically lengthy review processes despite recent streamlining efforts. In March 2026, the NRC issued its first commercial construction permit in a decade to TerraPower's US SFR Owner for a sodium-cooled fast reactor in Wyoming, and unveiled Part 53—a risk-informed licensing framework for advanced reactors effective April 29—aimed at accelerating approvals. However, no combined operating licenses (COLs) or equivalents have been granted for new builds this year, with full timelines typically spanning 18–42 months amid safety reviews and stakeholder input. With seven months left, traders anticipate delays, eyeing potential DOE-vetted reactor pathways and microreactor rules as year-end catalysts that may not resolve in time.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) issues a new combined license (COL) for the construction and operation of a nuclear power plant by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A combined license must be clearly identified as such and documented in official NRC releases. Only initial issuances count; amendments, renewals, or partial approvals do not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A combined license must be clearly identified as such and documented in official NRC releases. Only initial issuances count; amendments, renewals, or partial approvals do not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: Jan 26, 2026, 4:48 PM ET
Volume
$22,810End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Jan 26, 2026, 4:48 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) issues a new combined license (COL) for the construction and operation of a nuclear power plant by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A combined license must be clearly identified as such and documented in official NRC releases. Only initial issuances count; amendments, renewals, or partial approvals do not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects an 81.5% implied probability for "No" on a U.S. license for a new nuclear reactor in 2026, driven by the Nuclear Regulatory Commission's (NRC) historically lengthy review processes despite recent streamlining efforts. In March 2026, the NRC issued its first commercial construction permit in a decade to TerraPower's US SFR Owner for a sodium-cooled fast reactor in Wyoming, and unveiled Part 53—a risk-informed licensing framework for advanced reactors effective April 29—aimed at accelerating approvals. However, no combined operating licenses (COLs) or equivalents have been granted for new builds this year, with full timelines typically spanning 18–42 months amid safety reviews and stakeholder input. With seven months left, traders anticipate delays, eyeing potential DOE-vetted reactor pathways and microreactor rules as year-end catalysts that may not resolve in time.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) issues a new combined license (COL) for the construction and operation of a nuclear power plant by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A combined license must be clearly identified as such and documented in official NRC releases. Only initial issuances count; amendments, renewals, or partial approvals do not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A combined license must be clearly identified as such and documented in official NRC releases. Only initial issuances count; amendments, renewals, or partial approvals do not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$22,810End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Jan 26, 2026, 4:48 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects an 81.5% implied probability for "No" on a U.S. license for a new nuclear reactor in 2026, driven by the Nuclear Regulatory Commission's (NRC) historically lengthy review processes despite recent streamlining efforts. In March 2026, the NRC issued its first commercial construction permit in a decade to TerraPower's US SFR Owner for a sodium-cooled fast reactor in Wyoming, and unveiled Part 53—a risk-informed licensing framework for advanced reactors effective April 29—aimed at accelerating approvals. However, no combined operating licenses (COLs) or equivalents have been granted for new builds this year, with full timelines typically spanning 18–42 months amid safety reviews and stakeholder input. With seven months left, traders anticipate delays, eyeing potential DOE-vetted reactor pathways and microreactor rules as year-end catalysts that may not resolve in time.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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