Ongoing deadlock in US-Iran negotiations over Iran's nuclear program, particularly demands for upfront limits on uranium enrichment and removal of its enriched stockpile, has driven trader consensus toward a 94.5 percent probability against a deal by May 31. Recent talks mediated by third parties produced proposals for a temporary ceasefire and memorandum addressing the Strait of Hormuz, yet core disagreements persist on inspection regimes, enrichment caps, and timelines for any suspension. With only days remaining before the market resolution date, these entrenched positions and lack of progress on nuclear concessions make swift agreement unlikely absent a sudden diplomatic breakthrough.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedUS-Iran nuclear deal by May 31?
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31?
$675,727 Vol.
$675,727 Vol.
May 31, 2026
$675,727 Vol.
$675,727 Vol.
May 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over Iranian nuclear research and/or nuclear weapon development, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and Iran by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Agreements that include the United States and Iran as parties, even if they also involve other countries (e.g., a multilateral deal like the JCPOA), will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and/or the Islamic Republic of Iran, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.Ongoing deadlock in US-Iran negotiations over Iran's nuclear program, particularly demands for upfront limits on uranium enrichment and removal of its enriched stockpile, has driven trader consensus toward a 94.5 percent probability against a deal by May 31. Recent talks mediated by third parties produced proposals for a temporary ceasefire and memorandum addressing the Strait of Hormuz, yet core disagreements persist on inspection regimes, enrichment caps, and timelines for any suspension. With only days remaining before the market resolution date, these entrenched positions and lack of progress on nuclear concessions make swift agreement unlikely absent a sudden diplomatic breakthrough.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over Iranian nuclear research and/or nuclear weapon development, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and Iran by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Agreements that include the United States and Iran as parties, even if they also involve other countries (e.g., a multilateral deal like the JCPOA), will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and/or the Islamic Republic of Iran, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Agreements that include the United States and Iran as parties, even if they also involve other countries (e.g., a multilateral deal like the JCPOA), will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and/or the Islamic Republic of Iran, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
Market Opened: Apr 28, 2026, 10:39 PM ET
Volume
$675,727End Date
May 31, 2026Market Opened
Apr 28, 2026, 10:39 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over Iranian nuclear research and/or nuclear weapon development, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and Iran by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Agreements that include the United States and Iran as parties, even if they also involve other countries (e.g., a multilateral deal like the JCPOA), will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and/or the Islamic Republic of Iran, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.Ongoing deadlock in US-Iran negotiations over Iran's nuclear program, particularly demands for upfront limits on uranium enrichment and removal of its enriched stockpile, has driven trader consensus toward a 94.5 percent probability against a deal by May 31. Recent talks mediated by third parties produced proposals for a temporary ceasefire and memorandum addressing the Strait of Hormuz, yet core disagreements persist on inspection regimes, enrichment caps, and timelines for any suspension. With only days remaining before the market resolution date, these entrenched positions and lack of progress on nuclear concessions make swift agreement unlikely absent a sudden diplomatic breakthrough.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over Iranian nuclear research and/or nuclear weapon development, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and Iran by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Agreements that include the United States and Iran as parties, even if they also involve other countries (e.g., a multilateral deal like the JCPOA), will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and/or the Islamic Republic of Iran, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Agreements that include the United States and Iran as parties, even if they also involve other countries (e.g., a multilateral deal like the JCPOA), will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and/or the Islamic Republic of Iran, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
Volume
$675,727End Date
May 31, 2026Market Opened
Apr 28, 2026, 10:39 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Ongoing deadlock in US-Iran negotiations over Iran's nuclear program, particularly demands for upfront limits on uranium enrichment and removal of its enriched stockpile, has driven trader consensus toward a 94.5 percent probability against a deal by May 31. Recent talks mediated by third parties produced proposals for a temporary ceasefire and memorandum addressing the Strait of Hormuz, yet core disagreements persist on inspection regimes, enrichment caps, and timelines for any suspension. With only days remaining before the market resolution date, these entrenched positions and lack of progress on nuclear concessions make swift agreement unlikely absent a sudden diplomatic breakthrough.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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