Anthropic’s recent launch of Claude Fable 5.1 on September 1 has solidified its lead across composite benchmarks for reasoning, coding, agentic tasks, and knowledge work, with the model and its siblings occupying most top leaderboard positions as of September 22. Multiple independent evaluations place its performance ahead of OpenAI’s GPT-6 Astra and other frontier systems, while strong internal adoption of Anthropic models for R&D further reinforces perceptions of capability. With resolution just days away, traders see limited scope for an immediate reversal unless a competitor ships a superior update that shifts verified metrics before month-end.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedAnthropic 96.6%
Meta 1.8%
Google 1.2%
OpenAI 1.0%
$107,512 Vol.
$107,512 Vol.

Anthropic
97%

Meta
2%

1%

OpenAI
1%

SpaceXAI
<1%

Moonshot
<1%

Z.ai
<1%

DeepSeek
<1%

Alibaba
<1%

Baidu
<1%

Xiaomi
<1%

ByteDance
<1%

MiniMax
<1%

Thinky
<1%

Meituan
<1%

Mistral
<1%

Amazon
<1%

Nvidia
<1%

Tencent
<1%

StepFun
<1%

Microsoft
<1%
Anthropic 96.6%
Meta 1.8%
Google 1.2%
OpenAI 1.0%
$107,512 Vol.
$107,512 Vol.

Anthropic
97%

Meta
2%

1%

OpenAI
1%

SpaceXAI
<1%

Moonshot
<1%

Z.ai
<1%

DeepSeek
<1%

Alibaba
<1%

Baidu
<1%

Xiaomi
<1%

ByteDance
<1%

MiniMax
<1%

Thinky
<1%

Meituan
<1%

Mistral
<1%

Amazon
<1%

Nvidia
<1%

Tencent
<1%

StepFun
<1%

Microsoft
<1%
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Market Opened: Jul 20, 2026, 8:32 PM ET
Resolution Source
https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overallResolver
0x69c47De9D...Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Resolution Source
https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overallResolver
0x69c47De9D...Anthropic’s recent launch of Claude Fable 5.1 on September 1 has solidified its lead across composite benchmarks for reasoning, coding, agentic tasks, and knowledge work, with the model and its siblings occupying most top leaderboard positions as of September 22. Multiple independent evaluations place its performance ahead of OpenAI’s GPT-6 Astra and other frontier systems, while strong internal adoption of Anthropic models for R&D further reinforces perceptions of capability. With resolution just days away, traders see limited scope for an immediate reversal unless a competitor ships a superior update that shifts verified metrics before month-end.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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