OpenAI holds the strongest market-implied position at 68.4% because its GPT-6 Astra model recently overtook Anthropic’s Claude Fable 5.1 on the Code Arena WebDev leaderboard, posting the highest score at 1796 points versus 1764 as of mid-September. Traders appear to weigh OpenAI’s latest agentic coding gains and consistent frontier performance more heavily than Anthropic’s early-September Fable 5.1 release, which briefly led before the reversal. The remaining outcomes sit near zero, reflecting large gaps to models from Google, Moonshot, Alibaba, and others on real-world front-end web development tasks. With resolution tied to end-of-month arena standings, any final leaderboard shift between these two labs could still alter the outcome.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedOpenAI 68.3%
Anthropic 32%
Moonshot <1%
Google <1%
$173,020 Vol.
$173,020 Vol.
Sep 30, 2026
OpenAI
68%
Anthropic
32%
Moonshot
1%
<1%
Z.ai
<1%
SpaceXAI
<1%
Meta
<1%
ByteDance
<1%
Alibaba
<1%
MiniMax
<1%
Xiaomi
<1%
DeepSeek
<1%
Thinky
<1%
Tencent
<1%
Poolside
<1%
Mistral
<1%
OpenAI 68.3%
Anthropic 32%
Moonshot <1%
Google <1%
$173,020 Vol.
$173,020 Vol.
Sep 30, 2026
OpenAI
$35,815 Vol.
68%
Anthropic
$71,639 Vol.
32%
Moonshot
$21,981 Vol.
1%
$9,111 Vol.
<1%
Z.ai
$5,540 Vol.
<1%
SpaceXAI
$6,591 Vol.
<1%
Meta
$3,137 Vol.
<1%
ByteDance
$1,134 Vol.
<1%
Alibaba
$8,558 Vol.
<1%
MiniMax
$1,246 Vol.
<1%
Xiaomi
$3,018 Vol.
<1%
DeepSeek
$2,690 Vol.
<1%
Thinky
$560 Vol.
<1%
Tencent
$571 Vol.
<1%
Poolside
$641 Vol.
<1%
Mistral
$789 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest rank based on the arena.ai Code Arena | WebDev Leaderboard when the table under "Code Arena | WebDev" filtered for "Models" is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Code Arena | WebDev" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/code/webdev (Overall) filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Code Arena | WebDev Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".OpenAI holds the strongest market-implied position at 68.4% because its GPT-6 Astra model recently overtook Anthropic’s Claude Fable 5.1 on the Code Arena WebDev leaderboard, posting the highest score at 1796 points versus 1764 as of mid-September. Traders appear to weigh OpenAI’s latest agentic coding gains and consistent frontier performance more heavily than Anthropic’s early-September Fable 5.1 release, which briefly led before the reversal. The remaining outcomes sit near zero, reflecting large gaps to models from Google, Moonshot, Alibaba, and others on real-world front-end web development tasks. With resolution tied to end-of-month arena standings, any final leaderboard shift between these two labs could still alter the outcome.
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest rank based on the arena.ai Code Arena | WebDev Leaderboard when the table under "Code Arena | WebDev" filtered for "Models" is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Code Arena | WebDev" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/code/webdev (Overall) filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Code Arena | WebDev Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Code Arena | WebDev" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/code/webdev (Overall) filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Code Arena | WebDev Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Market Opened: Jul 20, 2026, 7:23 PM ET
Volume
$173,020End Date
Sep 30, 2026Market Opened
Jul 20, 2026, 7:23 PM ETResolution Source
https://arena.ai/leaderboard/code/webdevResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest rank based on the arena.ai Code Arena | WebDev Leaderboard when the table under "Code Arena | WebDev" filtered for "Models" is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Code Arena | WebDev" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/code/webdev (Overall) filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Code Arena | WebDev Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".OpenAI holds the strongest market-implied position at 68.4% because its GPT-6 Astra model recently overtook Anthropic’s Claude Fable 5.1 on the Code Arena WebDev leaderboard, posting the highest score at 1796 points versus 1764 as of mid-September. Traders appear to weigh OpenAI’s latest agentic coding gains and consistent frontier performance more heavily than Anthropic’s early-September Fable 5.1 release, which briefly led before the reversal. The remaining outcomes sit near zero, reflecting large gaps to models from Google, Moonshot, Alibaba, and others on real-world front-end web development tasks. With resolution tied to end-of-month arena standings, any final leaderboard shift between these two labs could still alter the outcome.
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest rank based on the arena.ai Code Arena | WebDev Leaderboard when the table under "Code Arena | WebDev" filtered for "Models" is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Code Arena | WebDev" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/code/webdev (Overall) filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Code Arena | WebDev Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Code Arena | WebDev" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/code/webdev (Overall) filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Code Arena | WebDev Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Volume
$173,020End Date
Sep 30, 2026Market Opened
Jul 20, 2026, 7:23 PM ETResolution Source
https://arena.ai/leaderboard/code/webdevResolver
0x69c47De9D...OpenAI holds the strongest market-implied position at 68.4% because its GPT-6 Astra model recently overtook Anthropic’s Claude Fable 5.1 on the Code Arena WebDev leaderboard, posting the highest score at 1796 points versus 1764 as of mid-September. Traders appear to weigh OpenAI’s latest agentic coding gains and consistent frontier performance more heavily than Anthropic’s early-September Fable 5.1 release, which briefly led before the reversal. The remaining outcomes sit near zero, reflecting large gaps to models from Google, Moonshot, Alibaba, and others on real-world front-end web development tasks. With resolution tied to end-of-month arena standings, any final leaderboard shift between these two labs could still alter the outcome.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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