**Nuevas Ideas (NI) holds a narrow edge at 52.5% in the market for the party gaining the most seats in El Salvador’s February 28, 2027 legislative election, with most other parties clustered near 50% or lower.** The election coincides with presidential and municipal contests, and candidate registration opened October 1 for the 60-seat Legislative Assembly. NI currently controls 54 seats following its 2024 landslide and benefits from President Nayib Bukele’s incumbency and high personal approval tied to security and governance priorities. Recent polls, including those from mid-2026, show NI legislative preferences in the mid-to-high 40s or above, well ahead of fragmented opposition parties such as ARENA, FMLN, Vamos, PCN, and PDC, which register low single-digit support. New factors include a dedicated overseas constituency for diaspora voters and the start of formal campaigning later this year. The market’s relatively tight positioning around 50% for several outcomes reflects the multi-month timeline until February, potential shifts during the campaign, and the possibility of vote splitting or alliances among smaller parties. Developments that could widen gaps include stronger opposition coordination, economic or security developments affecting turnout, or clearer signals from internal party primaries already underway.