Recent diplomatic efforts between the United States and Iran center on reviving the June 2026 Islamabad Memorandum, which established a 60-day window for finalizing terms on the Strait of Hormuz, sanctions relief, and Iran's nuclear program following earlier technical discussions in Oman and Switzerland. As of mid-August 2026, direct high-level engagement remains stalled amid disputes over navigation rights, frozen assets, and enforcement of the ceasefire, with both sides exchanging messages primarily through intermediaries such as Oman, Pakistan, and Qatar. US officials including President Trump and Vice President Vance have referenced ongoing indirect contacts, while Iranian statements emphasize separate Oman-focused talks. Resolution of these core issues could determine whether formal rounds resume before year-end, subject to mediation progress and compliance with existing commitments.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated$175,471 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf
46%
Majid Takht-Ravanchi
38%
J.D. Vance
42%
Jared Kushner
51%
Abbas Araghchi
44%
Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani
29%
Ishaq Dar
34%
Masoud Pezeshkian
26%
Steve Witkoff
35%
Rafael Grossi
33%
Marco Rubio
23%
Kazem Gharibabadi
21%
Nick Stewart
19%
Badr bin Hamad Al Busaidi
18%
Donald Trump
12%
Esmail Qaani
8%
Pete Hegseth
6%
Ahmad Vahidi
5%
Mojtaba Khamenei
5%
$175,471 Vol.
Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf
$11,260 Vol.
46%
Majid Takht-Ravanchi
$12,434 Vol.
38%
J.D. Vance
$11,907 Vol.
42%
Jared Kushner
$8,135 Vol.
51%
Abbas Araghchi
$6,749 Vol.
44%
Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani
$12,141 Vol.
29%
Ishaq Dar
$7,098 Vol.
34%
Masoud Pezeshkian
$10,588 Vol.
26%
Steve Witkoff
$7,918 Vol.
35%
Rafael Grossi
$10,470 Vol.
33%
Marco Rubio
$10,959 Vol.
23%
Kazem Gharibabadi
$14,392 Vol.
21%
Nick Stewart
$3,508 Vol.
19%
Badr bin Hamad Al Busaidi
$14,019 Vol.
18%
Donald Trump
$143 Vol.
12%
Esmail Qaani
$9,883 Vol.
8%
Pete Hegseth
$2,478 Vol.
6%
Ahmad Vahidi
$2,198 Vol.
5%
Mojtaba Khamenei
$19,189 Vol.
5%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual attends any formal senior-level round of peace talks between representatives of the United States and Iran between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A qualifying round must be a deliberate in-person diplomatic meeting or negotiating round concerning US-Iran relations, involving senior representatives of both the United States and Iran who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to conduct or materially direct diplomacy on behalf of their governments.
Indirect in-person diplomacy through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors will qualify, provided senior representatives of both the United States and Iran are participating in the same formal diplomatic process with the knowledge and authorization of their respective governments. The representatives need not be in the same room at the same time.
Follow-on technical talks from the June 22 Switzerland round will not qualify by themselves. Technical, staff-level, working-group, implementation, monitoring, preparatory, or deconfliction meetings will not qualify unless they occur as part of a new formally convened senior-level U.S.-Iran peace-talks round.
Brief greetings, chance encounters, photo opportunities, ceremonial appearances, or talks not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count.
The meeting must be in-person (including indirect in-person meetings) and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count.
Attendance refers to the listed individual being physically present and actively participating.
If a formal senior-level round of peace talks between representatives of the United States and Iran takes place over multiple days, attendance at any part of the meeting will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the listed individual and the governments of the United States and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Recent diplomatic efforts between the United States and Iran center on reviving the June 2026 Islamabad Memorandum, which established a 60-day window for finalizing terms on the Strait of Hormuz, sanctions relief, and Iran's nuclear program following earlier technical discussions in Oman and Switzerland. As of mid-August 2026, direct high-level engagement remains stalled amid disputes over navigation rights, frozen assets, and enforcement of the ceasefire, with both sides exchanging messages primarily through intermediaries such as Oman, Pakistan, and Qatar. US officials including President Trump and Vice President Vance have referenced ongoing indirect contacts, while Iranian statements emphasize separate Oman-focused talks. Resolution of these core issues could determine whether formal rounds resume before year-end, subject to mediation progress and compliance with existing commitments.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual attends any formal senior-level round of peace talks between representatives of the United States and Iran between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A qualifying round must be a deliberate in-person diplomatic meeting or negotiating round concerning US-Iran relations, involving senior representatives of both the United States and Iran who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to conduct or materially direct diplomacy on behalf of their governments.
Indirect in-person diplomacy through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors will qualify, provided senior representatives of both the United States and Iran are participating in the same formal diplomatic process with the knowledge and authorization of their respective governments. The representatives need not be in the same room at the same time.
Follow-on technical talks from the June 22 Switzerland round will not qualify by themselves. Technical, staff-level, working-group, implementation, monitoring, preparatory, or deconfliction meetings will not qualify unless they occur as part of a new formally convened senior-level U.S.-Iran peace-talks round.
Brief greetings, chance encounters, photo opportunities, ceremonial appearances, or talks not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count.
The meeting must be in-person (including indirect in-person meetings) and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count.
Attendance refers to the listed individual being physically present and actively participating.
If a formal senior-level round of peace talks between representatives of the United States and Iran takes place over multiple days, attendance at any part of the meeting will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the listed individual and the governments of the United States and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
A qualifying round must be a deliberate in-person diplomatic meeting or negotiating round concerning US-Iran relations, involving senior representatives of both the United States and Iran who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to conduct or materially direct diplomacy on behalf of their governments.
Indirect in-person diplomacy through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors will qualify, provided senior representatives of both the United States and Iran are participating in the same formal diplomatic process with the knowledge and authorization of their respective governments. The representatives need not be in the same room at the same time.
Follow-on technical talks from the June 22 Switzerland round will not qualify by themselves. Technical, staff-level, working-group, implementation, monitoring, preparatory, or deconfliction meetings will not qualify unless they occur as part of a new formally convened senior-level U.S.-Iran peace-talks round.
Brief greetings, chance encounters, photo opportunities, ceremonial appearances, or talks not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count.
The meeting must be in-person (including indirect in-person meetings) and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count.
Attendance refers to the listed individual being physically present and actively participating.
If a formal senior-level round of peace talks between representatives of the United States and Iran takes place over multiple days, attendance at any part of the meeting will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the listed individual and the governments of the United States and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Market Opened: Aug 12, 2026, 7:15 PM ET
Volume
$175,471End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Aug 12, 2026, 7:15 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual attends any formal senior-level round of peace talks between representatives of the United States and Iran between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A qualifying round must be a deliberate in-person diplomatic meeting or negotiating round concerning US-Iran relations, involving senior representatives of both the United States and Iran who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to conduct or materially direct diplomacy on behalf of their governments.
Indirect in-person diplomacy through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors will qualify, provided senior representatives of both the United States and Iran are participating in the same formal diplomatic process with the knowledge and authorization of their respective governments. The representatives need not be in the same room at the same time.
Follow-on technical talks from the June 22 Switzerland round will not qualify by themselves. Technical, staff-level, working-group, implementation, monitoring, preparatory, or deconfliction meetings will not qualify unless they occur as part of a new formally convened senior-level U.S.-Iran peace-talks round.
Brief greetings, chance encounters, photo opportunities, ceremonial appearances, or talks not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count.
The meeting must be in-person (including indirect in-person meetings) and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count.
Attendance refers to the listed individual being physically present and actively participating.
If a formal senior-level round of peace talks between representatives of the United States and Iran takes place over multiple days, attendance at any part of the meeting will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the listed individual and the governments of the United States and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Recent diplomatic efforts between the United States and Iran center on reviving the June 2026 Islamabad Memorandum, which established a 60-day window for finalizing terms on the Strait of Hormuz, sanctions relief, and Iran's nuclear program following earlier technical discussions in Oman and Switzerland. As of mid-August 2026, direct high-level engagement remains stalled amid disputes over navigation rights, frozen assets, and enforcement of the ceasefire, with both sides exchanging messages primarily through intermediaries such as Oman, Pakistan, and Qatar. US officials including President Trump and Vice President Vance have referenced ongoing indirect contacts, while Iranian statements emphasize separate Oman-focused talks. Resolution of these core issues could determine whether formal rounds resume before year-end, subject to mediation progress and compliance with existing commitments.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual attends any formal senior-level round of peace talks between representatives of the United States and Iran between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A qualifying round must be a deliberate in-person diplomatic meeting or negotiating round concerning US-Iran relations, involving senior representatives of both the United States and Iran who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to conduct or materially direct diplomacy on behalf of their governments.
Indirect in-person diplomacy through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors will qualify, provided senior representatives of both the United States and Iran are participating in the same formal diplomatic process with the knowledge and authorization of their respective governments. The representatives need not be in the same room at the same time.
Follow-on technical talks from the June 22 Switzerland round will not qualify by themselves. Technical, staff-level, working-group, implementation, monitoring, preparatory, or deconfliction meetings will not qualify unless they occur as part of a new formally convened senior-level U.S.-Iran peace-talks round.
Brief greetings, chance encounters, photo opportunities, ceremonial appearances, or talks not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count.
The meeting must be in-person (including indirect in-person meetings) and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count.
Attendance refers to the listed individual being physically present and actively participating.
If a formal senior-level round of peace talks between representatives of the United States and Iran takes place over multiple days, attendance at any part of the meeting will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the listed individual and the governments of the United States and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
A qualifying round must be a deliberate in-person diplomatic meeting or negotiating round concerning US-Iran relations, involving senior representatives of both the United States and Iran who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to conduct or materially direct diplomacy on behalf of their governments.
Indirect in-person diplomacy through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors will qualify, provided senior representatives of both the United States and Iran are participating in the same formal diplomatic process with the knowledge and authorization of their respective governments. The representatives need not be in the same room at the same time.
Follow-on technical talks from the June 22 Switzerland round will not qualify by themselves. Technical, staff-level, working-group, implementation, monitoring, preparatory, or deconfliction meetings will not qualify unless they occur as part of a new formally convened senior-level U.S.-Iran peace-talks round.
Brief greetings, chance encounters, photo opportunities, ceremonial appearances, or talks not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count.
The meeting must be in-person (including indirect in-person meetings) and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count.
Attendance refers to the listed individual being physically present and actively participating.
If a formal senior-level round of peace talks between representatives of the United States and Iran takes place over multiple days, attendance at any part of the meeting will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the listed individual and the governments of the United States and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Volume
$175,471End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Aug 12, 2026, 7:15 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent diplomatic efforts between the United States and Iran center on reviving the June 2026 Islamabad Memorandum, which established a 60-day window for finalizing terms on the Strait of Hormuz, sanctions relief, and Iran's nuclear program following earlier technical discussions in Oman and Switzerland. As of mid-August 2026, direct high-level engagement remains stalled amid disputes over navigation rights, frozen assets, and enforcement of the ceasefire, with both sides exchanging messages primarily through intermediaries such as Oman, Pakistan, and Qatar. US officials including President Trump and Vice President Vance have referenced ongoing indirect contacts, while Iranian statements emphasize separate Oman-focused talks. Resolution of these core issues could determine whether formal rounds resume before year-end, subject to mediation progress and compliance with existing commitments.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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