The Justice Department’s assessment that the Epstein files released under the 2025 Transparency Act contain no credible new evidence sufficient for additional U.S. prosecutions remains the dominant factor behind the 83.5% implied probability traders assign to no charges by year-end. Major tranches of millions of pages, videos, and images disclosed in January and February 2026 produced no indictments, consistent with prior internal reviews that cited evidentiary gaps, statutes of limitations, and the 2021 conviction of Ghislaine Maxwell. Deputy Attorney General statements and ongoing Inspector General oversight have focused on document compliance rather than new investigations, while limited foreign actions have not triggered U.S. cases tied to the disclosures. This pattern of stalled probes reinforces market pricing that the disclosures will not produce criminal charges.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated$129,361 Vol.
$129,361 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
$129,361 Vol.
$129,361 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, any Federal or State jurisdiction of the United States formally charges or otherwise announces a criminal indictment of any individual, and the cause of that charge or indictment is attributed to information contained in files related to Jeffrey Epstein released by the federal government on or after December 19, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A qualifying charge or indictment must be caused by information included in Epstein-related files released on or after December 19, 2025. The cause of the charge or indictment may be established through official charging documents, official information from law enforcement authorities, relevant legal entities, or the US federal government, or through a clear consensus of credible reporting attributing the charge/indictment to information contained in those released files. Charges or indictments driven by information that was publicly known before December 19, 2025, or by reasons unrelated to the content of the released Epstein-related files, will not qualify.
For the purposes of this market the District of Columbia and any county, municipality, or other subdivision of a State shall be included within the definition of a State.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from US governmental sources, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.The Justice Department’s assessment that the Epstein files released under the 2025 Transparency Act contain no credible new evidence sufficient for additional U.S. prosecutions remains the dominant factor behind the 83.5% implied probability traders assign to no charges by year-end. Major tranches of millions of pages, videos, and images disclosed in January and February 2026 produced no indictments, consistent with prior internal reviews that cited evidentiary gaps, statutes of limitations, and the 2021 conviction of Ghislaine Maxwell. Deputy Attorney General statements and ongoing Inspector General oversight have focused on document compliance rather than new investigations, while limited foreign actions have not triggered U.S. cases tied to the disclosures. This pattern of stalled probes reinforces market pricing that the disclosures will not produce criminal charges.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, any Federal or State jurisdiction of the United States formally charges or otherwise announces a criminal indictment of any individual, and the cause of that charge or indictment is attributed to information contained in files related to Jeffrey Epstein released by the federal government on or after December 19, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A qualifying charge or indictment must be caused by information included in Epstein-related files released on or after December 19, 2025. The cause of the charge or indictment may be established through official charging documents, official information from law enforcement authorities, relevant legal entities, or the US federal government, or through a clear consensus of credible reporting attributing the charge/indictment to information contained in those released files. Charges or indictments driven by information that was publicly known before December 19, 2025, or by reasons unrelated to the content of the released Epstein-related files, will not qualify.
For the purposes of this market the District of Columbia and any county, municipality, or other subdivision of a State shall be included within the definition of a State.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from US governmental sources, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
A qualifying charge or indictment must be caused by information included in Epstein-related files released on or after December 19, 2025. The cause of the charge or indictment may be established through official charging documents, official information from law enforcement authorities, relevant legal entities, or the US federal government, or through a clear consensus of credible reporting attributing the charge/indictment to information contained in those released files. Charges or indictments driven by information that was publicly known before December 19, 2025, or by reasons unrelated to the content of the released Epstein-related files, will not qualify.
For the purposes of this market the District of Columbia and any county, municipality, or other subdivision of a State shall be included within the definition of a State.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from US governmental sources, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Market Opened: Feb 2, 2026, 3:00 PM ET
Volume
$129,361End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Feb 2, 2026, 3:00 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, any Federal or State jurisdiction of the United States formally charges or otherwise announces a criminal indictment of any individual, and the cause of that charge or indictment is attributed to information contained in files related to Jeffrey Epstein released by the federal government on or after December 19, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A qualifying charge or indictment must be caused by information included in Epstein-related files released on or after December 19, 2025. The cause of the charge or indictment may be established through official charging documents, official information from law enforcement authorities, relevant legal entities, or the US federal government, or through a clear consensus of credible reporting attributing the charge/indictment to information contained in those released files. Charges or indictments driven by information that was publicly known before December 19, 2025, or by reasons unrelated to the content of the released Epstein-related files, will not qualify.
For the purposes of this market the District of Columbia and any county, municipality, or other subdivision of a State shall be included within the definition of a State.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from US governmental sources, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.The Justice Department’s assessment that the Epstein files released under the 2025 Transparency Act contain no credible new evidence sufficient for additional U.S. prosecutions remains the dominant factor behind the 83.5% implied probability traders assign to no charges by year-end. Major tranches of millions of pages, videos, and images disclosed in January and February 2026 produced no indictments, consistent with prior internal reviews that cited evidentiary gaps, statutes of limitations, and the 2021 conviction of Ghislaine Maxwell. Deputy Attorney General statements and ongoing Inspector General oversight have focused on document compliance rather than new investigations, while limited foreign actions have not triggered U.S. cases tied to the disclosures. This pattern of stalled probes reinforces market pricing that the disclosures will not produce criminal charges.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, any Federal or State jurisdiction of the United States formally charges or otherwise announces a criminal indictment of any individual, and the cause of that charge or indictment is attributed to information contained in files related to Jeffrey Epstein released by the federal government on or after December 19, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A qualifying charge or indictment must be caused by information included in Epstein-related files released on or after December 19, 2025. The cause of the charge or indictment may be established through official charging documents, official information from law enforcement authorities, relevant legal entities, or the US federal government, or through a clear consensus of credible reporting attributing the charge/indictment to information contained in those released files. Charges or indictments driven by information that was publicly known before December 19, 2025, or by reasons unrelated to the content of the released Epstein-related files, will not qualify.
For the purposes of this market the District of Columbia and any county, municipality, or other subdivision of a State shall be included within the definition of a State.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from US governmental sources, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
A qualifying charge or indictment must be caused by information included in Epstein-related files released on or after December 19, 2025. The cause of the charge or indictment may be established through official charging documents, official information from law enforcement authorities, relevant legal entities, or the US federal government, or through a clear consensus of credible reporting attributing the charge/indictment to information contained in those released files. Charges or indictments driven by information that was publicly known before December 19, 2025, or by reasons unrelated to the content of the released Epstein-related files, will not qualify.
For the purposes of this market the District of Columbia and any county, municipality, or other subdivision of a State shall be included within the definition of a State.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from US governmental sources, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Volume
$129,361End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Feb 2, 2026, 3:00 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The Justice Department’s assessment that the Epstein files released under the 2025 Transparency Act contain no credible new evidence sufficient for additional U.S. prosecutions remains the dominant factor behind the 83.5% implied probability traders assign to no charges by year-end. Major tranches of millions of pages, videos, and images disclosed in January and February 2026 produced no indictments, consistent with prior internal reviews that cited evidentiary gaps, statutes of limitations, and the 2021 conviction of Ghislaine Maxwell. Deputy Attorney General statements and ongoing Inspector General oversight have focused on document compliance rather than new investigations, while limited foreign actions have not triggered U.S. cases tied to the disclosures. This pattern of stalled probes reinforces market pricing that the disclosures will not produce criminal charges.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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