Traders assign a 98.7 percent implied probability against a Chinese invasion of Taiwan by June 30, 2026, reflecting the absence of large-scale amphibious preparations or major People’s Liberation Army exercises in recent weeks. The most recent verifiable development, the mid-May Trump-Xi summit in Beijing, produced standard warnings from Chinese leaders about risks of conflict over Taiwan without any accompanying military mobilization or new deadlines. Ongoing gray-zone patrols continue, yet U.S. intelligence assessments and Taiwan’s accelerated drone procurement underscore sustained deterrence through arms sales and defensive enhancements. Scenarios that could still shift odds include an abrupt blockade, sudden territorial incident, or unexpected leadership decision within the narrow remaining window, though current diplomatic and military patterns point to continued stability.