Ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East have sharply curtailed commercial transits through the Strait of Hormuz, a chokepoint handling roughly 25% of global seaborne oil trade, sustaining Brent crude prices near $97 per barrel amid supply uncertainty and elevated war-risk insurance premiums. Daily throughput has fallen to 1-3% of pre-crisis levels of about 60 vessels, with recent modest upticks tied to Iranian permits and limited naval coordination under ceasefire conditions. These dynamics reflect trader consensus on persistent security risks and stalled diplomacy, while elevated tanker rates and LNG supply concerns amplify volatility in energy futures. Key catalysts through June 30 include early-June traffic data releases and any negotiation breakthroughs that could normalize flows.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedWill __ ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30?
Will __ ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30?
$138,919 Vol.
Jun 30, 2026
80+
8%
20+
28%
40+
21%
60+
14%
$138,919 Vol.
80+
$30,501 Vol.
8%
20+
$39,531 Vol.
28%
40+
$26,379 Vol.
21%
60+
$42,509 Vol.
14%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any finalized daily number of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz reported by IMF Portwatch is equal to or above the listed value for any date between market creation and June 30, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
Data for a specific date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely, once the next date's data point is available, the previous one is finalized).
This market will resolve as soon as a qualifying figure has been finalized or once all relevant data has been finalized. If the data for the final date of the specified timeframe has not been finalized by the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the day on which such data is first released, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. Additionally, if not all relevant data has been released and finalized within 14 calendar days of the end of the specified period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before the applicable resolution time will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.Ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East have sharply curtailed commercial transits through the Strait of Hormuz, a chokepoint handling roughly 25% of global seaborne oil trade, sustaining Brent crude prices near $97 per barrel amid supply uncertainty and elevated war-risk insurance premiums. Daily throughput has fallen to 1-3% of pre-crisis levels of about 60 vessels, with recent modest upticks tied to Iranian permits and limited naval coordination under ceasefire conditions. These dynamics reflect trader consensus on persistent security risks and stalled diplomacy, while elevated tanker rates and LNG supply concerns amplify volatility in energy futures. Key catalysts through June 30 include early-June traffic data releases and any negotiation breakthroughs that could normalize flows.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any finalized daily number of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz reported by IMF Portwatch is equal to or above the listed value for any date between market creation and June 30, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
Data for a specific date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely, once the next date's data point is available, the previous one is finalized).
This market will resolve as soon as a qualifying figure has been finalized or once all relevant data has been finalized. If the data for the final date of the specified timeframe has not been finalized by the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the day on which such data is first released, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. Additionally, if not all relevant data has been released and finalized within 14 calendar days of the end of the specified period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before the applicable resolution time will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
Data for a specific date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely, once the next date's data point is available, the previous one is finalized).
This market will resolve as soon as a qualifying figure has been finalized or once all relevant data has been finalized. If the data for the final date of the specified timeframe has not been finalized by the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the day on which such data is first released, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. Additionally, if not all relevant data has been released and finalized within 14 calendar days of the end of the specified period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before the applicable resolution time will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Market Opened: Jun 1, 2026, 1:58 PM ET
Volume
$138,919End Date
Jun 30, 2026Market Opened
Jun 1, 2026, 1:58 PM ETResolution Source
https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730Resolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if any finalized daily number of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz reported by IMF Portwatch is equal to or above the listed value for any date between market creation and June 30, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
Data for a specific date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely, once the next date's data point is available, the previous one is finalized).
This market will resolve as soon as a qualifying figure has been finalized or once all relevant data has been finalized. If the data for the final date of the specified timeframe has not been finalized by the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the day on which such data is first released, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. Additionally, if not all relevant data has been released and finalized within 14 calendar days of the end of the specified period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before the applicable resolution time will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.Ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East have sharply curtailed commercial transits through the Strait of Hormuz, a chokepoint handling roughly 25% of global seaborne oil trade, sustaining Brent crude prices near $97 per barrel amid supply uncertainty and elevated war-risk insurance premiums. Daily throughput has fallen to 1-3% of pre-crisis levels of about 60 vessels, with recent modest upticks tied to Iranian permits and limited naval coordination under ceasefire conditions. These dynamics reflect trader consensus on persistent security risks and stalled diplomacy, while elevated tanker rates and LNG supply concerns amplify volatility in energy futures. Key catalysts through June 30 include early-June traffic data releases and any negotiation breakthroughs that could normalize flows.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any finalized daily number of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz reported by IMF Portwatch is equal to or above the listed value for any date between market creation and June 30, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
Data for a specific date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely, once the next date's data point is available, the previous one is finalized).
This market will resolve as soon as a qualifying figure has been finalized or once all relevant data has been finalized. If the data for the final date of the specified timeframe has not been finalized by the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the day on which such data is first released, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. Additionally, if not all relevant data has been released and finalized within 14 calendar days of the end of the specified period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before the applicable resolution time will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
Data for a specific date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely, once the next date's data point is available, the previous one is finalized).
This market will resolve as soon as a qualifying figure has been finalized or once all relevant data has been finalized. If the data for the final date of the specified timeframe has not been finalized by the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the day on which such data is first released, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. Additionally, if not all relevant data has been released and finalized within 14 calendar days of the end of the specified period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before the applicable resolution time will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Volume
$138,919End Date
Jun 30, 2026Market Opened
Jun 1, 2026, 1:58 PM ETResolution Source
https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730Resolver
0x65070BE91...Ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East have sharply curtailed commercial transits through the Strait of Hormuz, a chokepoint handling roughly 25% of global seaborne oil trade, sustaining Brent crude prices near $97 per barrel amid supply uncertainty and elevated war-risk insurance premiums. Daily throughput has fallen to 1-3% of pre-crisis levels of about 60 vessels, with recent modest upticks tied to Iranian permits and limited naval coordination under ceasefire conditions. These dynamics reflect trader consensus on persistent security risks and stalled diplomacy, while elevated tanker rates and LNG supply concerns amplify volatility in energy futures. Key catalysts through June 30 include early-June traffic data releases and any negotiation breakthroughs that could normalize flows.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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