Tesla's limited progress toward unsupervised robotaxi operations in California underpins the market's strong lean toward "No." The company holds only a basic DMV permit for testing with a safety driver and operates its Bay Area service under a standard charter-party carrier permit that requires an in-vehicle monitor, as confirmed by CPUC officials. Tesla has logged negligible autonomous test miles on California roads and has not pursued the additional permits or extensive supervised mileage needed for driverless deployment. Meanwhile, competitors like Waymo have secured broad CPUC approvals and expanded paid driverless rides across multiple counties. With roughly three months remaining, the regulatory steps, data requirements, and approvals needed for a full launch make completion by year-end highly improbable absent rapid, unannounced breakthroughs.