Skip to main content
icon for Will the Senate pass a reconciliation bill by...?
Politics·Congress

Will the Senate pass a reconciliation bill by...?

icon for Will the Senate pass a reconciliation bill by...?
Politics·Congress

Will the Senate pass a reconciliation bill by...?

$35,677 Vol.

May 31, 2026
Polymarket

$35,677 Vol.

Polymarket

May 15

$5,110 Vol.

<1%

May 22

$23,518 Vol.

72%

May 31

$7,050 Vol.

85%

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US Senate passes a reconciliation bill by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US Government. However, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Senate Republicans, holding a slim 50-48 majority, are accelerating a $72 billion budget reconciliation bill to fund ICE, CBP, and border security for FY2026 amid a partial government shutdown, bypassing the filibuster via simple majority vote. The FY2026 budget resolution passed on April 23, committees released bill text on May 11, and submissions to Budget Committees are due today, May 15. Party-line advancement signals strong GOP cohesion, though Senate Parliamentarian Byrd Rule advisories on extraneous provisions—like White House security funding—and intra-party pushback from figures like Rand Paul introduce hurdles. Floor markup and vote are targeted before May 31 market close, aligning with President Trump's June 1 deadline ahead of summer recess.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US Senate passes a reconciliation bill by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US Government. However, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Volume
$35,677
End Date
May 31, 2026
Market Opened
May 4, 2026, 7:48 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US Senate passes a reconciliation bill by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US Government. However, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US Senate passes a reconciliation bill by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US Government. However, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Senate Republicans, holding a slim 50-48 majority, are accelerating a $72 billion budget reconciliation bill to fund ICE, CBP, and border security for FY2026 amid a partial government shutdown, bypassing the filibuster via simple majority vote. The FY2026 budget resolution passed on April 23, committees released bill text on May 11, and submissions to Budget Committees are due today, May 15. Party-line advancement signals strong GOP cohesion, though Senate Parliamentarian Byrd Rule advisories on extraneous provisions—like White House security funding—and intra-party pushback from figures like Rand Paul introduce hurdles. Floor markup and vote are targeted before May 31 market close, aligning with President Trump's June 1 deadline ahead of summer recess.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US Senate passes a reconciliation bill by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US Government. However, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Volume
$35,677
End Date
May 31, 2026
Market Opened
May 4, 2026, 7:48 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US Senate passes a reconciliation bill by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US Government. However, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Related

icon for New Rihanna Album before GTA VI?

New Rihanna Album before GTA VI?

54%
icon for Will Harvey Weinstein be sentenced to no prison time?

Will Harvey Weinstein be sentenced to no prison time?

30%
icon for Will the Carolina Hurricanes win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup?

Will the Carolina Hurricanes win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup?

38%

Beware of external links.

Frequently Asked Questions

"Will the Senate pass a reconciliation bill by...?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 3 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "May 31" at 85%, followed by "May 22" at 72%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 85¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 85% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Will the Senate pass a reconciliation bill by...?" has generated $35.7K in total trading volume since the market launched on May 4, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Will the Senate pass a reconciliation bill by...?," browse the 3 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Will the Senate pass a reconciliation bill by...?" is "May 31" at 85%, meaning the market assigns a 85% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "May 22" at 72%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Will the Senate pass a reconciliation bill by...?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.