Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 92.3% implied probability of "No" for Trump reducing the deficit before 2027—defined as December 2026 Monthly Treasury Statement showing a lower deficit than September 2025's $198 billion surplus—driven by entrenched fiscal dynamics and seasonality. September routinely delivers surpluses from corporate tax payments, while December posts large deficits, as seen in the $145 billion shortfall last year, amid year-end outlays. The Congressional Budget Office's February 2026 baseline projects a $1.9 trillion FY2026 deficit, up from $1.78 trillion in FY2025, fueled by extended 2017 tax cuts eroding revenues, defense spending hikes to $1.5 trillion proposed in Trump's April budget, and net interest costs surpassing $1 trillion annually. Year-to-date FY2026 cumulative deficit of $1.2 trillion through March trails prior year by 11%, but projections signal no reversal. Upside risks include aggressive congressional spending restraints or outsized tariff revenues materializing by year-end.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedNEW
NEW
Dec 31, 2026
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Dec 31, 2026
The U.S. federal budget deficit for September 2025 was $197,949,630,362.16 (see: https://fiscaldata.treasury.gov/datasets/monthly-treasury-statement/summary-of-receipts-outlays-and-the-deficit-surplus-of-the-u-s-government).
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Monthly Treasury Statement (MTS) reports a lower monthly deficit in December 2026 than in September 2025. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
The resolution source will be the Monthly Treasury Statement (MTS) published by the U.S. Department of the Treasury (fiscaldata.treasury.gov). The month surplus can be found in the column labeled "Current Month Deficit Surplus Amount" in the the table "Summary of Receipts, Outlays, and Surplus or Deficit” in the MTS (see: https://fiscaldata.treasury.gov/datasets/monthly-treasury-statement/summary-of-receipts-outlays-and-the-deficit-surplus-of-the-u-s-government). If no report is published by February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET another credible source will be used.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 92.3% implied probability of "No" for Trump reducing the deficit before 2027—defined as December 2026 Monthly Treasury Statement showing a lower deficit than September 2025's $198 billion surplus—driven by entrenched fiscal dynamics and seasonality. September routinely delivers surpluses from corporate tax payments, while December posts large deficits, as seen in the $145 billion shortfall last year, amid year-end outlays. The Congressional Budget Office's February 2026 baseline projects a $1.9 trillion FY2026 deficit, up from $1.78 trillion in FY2025, fueled by extended 2017 tax cuts eroding revenues, defense spending hikes to $1.5 trillion proposed in Trump's April budget, and net interest costs surpassing $1 trillion annually. Year-to-date FY2026 cumulative deficit of $1.2 trillion through March trails prior year by 11%, but projections signal no reversal. Upside risks include aggressive congressional spending restraints or outsized tariff revenues materializing by year-end.
The U.S. federal budget deficit for September 2025 was $197,949,630,362.16 (see: https://fiscaldata.treasury.gov/datasets/monthly-treasury-statement/summary-of-receipts-outlays-and-the-deficit-surplus-of-the-u-s-government).
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Monthly Treasury Statement (MTS) reports a lower monthly deficit in December 2026 than in September 2025. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
The resolution source will be the Monthly Treasury Statement (MTS) published by the U.S. Department of the Treasury (fiscaldata.treasury.gov). The month surplus can be found in the column labeled "Current Month Deficit Surplus Amount" in the the table "Summary of Receipts, Outlays, and Surplus or Deficit” in the MTS (see: https://fiscaldata.treasury.gov/datasets/monthly-treasury-statement/summary-of-receipts-outlays-and-the-deficit-surplus-of-the-u-s-government). If no report is published by February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET another credible source will be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Monthly Treasury Statement (MTS) reports a lower monthly deficit in December 2026 than in September 2025. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
The resolution source will be the Monthly Treasury Statement (MTS) published by the U.S. Department of the Treasury (fiscaldata.treasury.gov). The month surplus can be found in the column labeled "Current Month Deficit Surplus Amount" in the the table "Summary of Receipts, Outlays, and Surplus or Deficit” in the MTS (see: https://fiscaldata.treasury.gov/datasets/monthly-treasury-statement/summary-of-receipts-outlays-and-the-deficit-surplus-of-the-u-s-government). If no report is published by February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET another credible source will be used.
Market Opened: Nov 5, 2025, 2:13 PM ET
Volume
$1,317End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Nov 5, 2025, 2:13 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The U.S. federal budget deficit for September 2025 was $197,949,630,362.16 (see: https://fiscaldata.treasury.gov/datasets/monthly-treasury-statement/summary-of-receipts-outlays-and-the-deficit-surplus-of-the-u-s-government).
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Monthly Treasury Statement (MTS) reports a lower monthly deficit in December 2026 than in September 2025. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
The resolution source will be the Monthly Treasury Statement (MTS) published by the U.S. Department of the Treasury (fiscaldata.treasury.gov). The month surplus can be found in the column labeled "Current Month Deficit Surplus Amount" in the the table "Summary of Receipts, Outlays, and Surplus or Deficit” in the MTS (see: https://fiscaldata.treasury.gov/datasets/monthly-treasury-statement/summary-of-receipts-outlays-and-the-deficit-surplus-of-the-u-s-government). If no report is published by February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET another credible source will be used.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 92.3% implied probability of "No" for Trump reducing the deficit before 2027—defined as December 2026 Monthly Treasury Statement showing a lower deficit than September 2025's $198 billion surplus—driven by entrenched fiscal dynamics and seasonality. September routinely delivers surpluses from corporate tax payments, while December posts large deficits, as seen in the $145 billion shortfall last year, amid year-end outlays. The Congressional Budget Office's February 2026 baseline projects a $1.9 trillion FY2026 deficit, up from $1.78 trillion in FY2025, fueled by extended 2017 tax cuts eroding revenues, defense spending hikes to $1.5 trillion proposed in Trump's April budget, and net interest costs surpassing $1 trillion annually. Year-to-date FY2026 cumulative deficit of $1.2 trillion through March trails prior year by 11%, but projections signal no reversal. Upside risks include aggressive congressional spending restraints or outsized tariff revenues materializing by year-end.
The U.S. federal budget deficit for September 2025 was $197,949,630,362.16 (see: https://fiscaldata.treasury.gov/datasets/monthly-treasury-statement/summary-of-receipts-outlays-and-the-deficit-surplus-of-the-u-s-government).
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Monthly Treasury Statement (MTS) reports a lower monthly deficit in December 2026 than in September 2025. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
The resolution source will be the Monthly Treasury Statement (MTS) published by the U.S. Department of the Treasury (fiscaldata.treasury.gov). The month surplus can be found in the column labeled "Current Month Deficit Surplus Amount" in the the table "Summary of Receipts, Outlays, and Surplus or Deficit” in the MTS (see: https://fiscaldata.treasury.gov/datasets/monthly-treasury-statement/summary-of-receipts-outlays-and-the-deficit-surplus-of-the-u-s-government). If no report is published by February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET another credible source will be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Monthly Treasury Statement (MTS) reports a lower monthly deficit in December 2026 than in September 2025. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
The resolution source will be the Monthly Treasury Statement (MTS) published by the U.S. Department of the Treasury (fiscaldata.treasury.gov). The month surplus can be found in the column labeled "Current Month Deficit Surplus Amount" in the the table "Summary of Receipts, Outlays, and Surplus or Deficit” in the MTS (see: https://fiscaldata.treasury.gov/datasets/monthly-treasury-statement/summary-of-receipts-outlays-and-the-deficit-surplus-of-the-u-s-government). If no report is published by February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET another credible source will be used.
Volume
$1,317End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Nov 5, 2025, 2:13 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 92.3% implied probability of "No" for Trump reducing the deficit before 2027—defined as December 2026 Monthly Treasury Statement showing a lower deficit than September 2025's $198 billion surplus—driven by entrenched fiscal dynamics and seasonality. September routinely delivers surpluses from corporate tax payments, while December posts large deficits, as seen in the $145 billion shortfall last year, amid year-end outlays. The Congressional Budget Office's February 2026 baseline projects a $1.9 trillion FY2026 deficit, up from $1.78 trillion in FY2025, fueled by extended 2017 tax cuts eroding revenues, defense spending hikes to $1.5 trillion proposed in Trump's April budget, and net interest costs surpassing $1 trillion annually. Year-to-date FY2026 cumulative deficit of $1.2 trillion through March trails prior year by 11%, but projections signal no reversal. Upside risks include aggressive congressional spending restraints or outsized tariff revenues materializing by year-end.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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