The constitutional barriers to repealing the 22nd Amendment explain traders' strong consensus against any 2026 repeal. Amending the Constitution requires two-thirds majorities in both chambers of Congress followed by ratification from three-fourths of the states, a threshold rarely met even under unified government. Recent proposals such as H.J.Res.29 have remained stalled in committee with no floor action or broad bipartisan backing as of mid-2026. President Trump's public comments have acknowledged the legal constraints while occasionally joking about extended service, yet no legislative or state-level momentum has emerged ahead of the midterm elections. Scenarios that could still shift odds include a surprise post-election push for a constitutional convention or rapid state ratifications following an unforeseen crisis, though both remain remote given current congressional dynamics and historical precedent.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated5% chance
$12,999 Vol.
$12,999 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
5% chance
$12,999 Vol.
$12,999 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump signs any bill into law that aims to repeal or alter presidential term limits as defined by the 22nd Amendment to the U.S. Constitution, such a bill is otherwise passed into law, or if the U.S. Supreme Court rules in a way that would permit a president to serve more than two terms by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Any law signed meeting these criteria will count, even if its implementation is immediately halted or delayed by judicial or other actions.
This market's resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration and U.S. Supreme Court decisions.The constitutional barriers to repealing the 22nd Amendment explain traders' strong consensus against any 2026 repeal. Amending the Constitution requires two-thirds majorities in both chambers of Congress followed by ratification from three-fourths of the states, a threshold rarely met even under unified government. Recent proposals such as H.J.Res.29 have remained stalled in committee with no floor action or broad bipartisan backing as of mid-2026. President Trump's public comments have acknowledged the legal constraints while occasionally joking about extended service, yet no legislative or state-level momentum has emerged ahead of the midterm elections. Scenarios that could still shift odds include a surprise post-election push for a constitutional convention or rapid state ratifications following an unforeseen crisis, though both remain remote given current congressional dynamics and historical precedent.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump signs any bill into law that aims to repeal or alter presidential term limits as defined by the 22nd Amendment to the U.S. Constitution, such a bill is otherwise passed into law, or if the U.S. Supreme Court rules in a way that would permit a president to serve more than two terms by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Any law signed meeting these criteria will count, even if its implementation is immediately halted or delayed by judicial or other actions.
This market's resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration and U.S. Supreme Court decisions.
Any law signed meeting these criteria will count, even if its implementation is immediately halted or delayed by judicial or other actions.
This market's resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration and U.S. Supreme Court decisions.
Market Opened: Feb 2, 2026, 5:18 PM ET
Volume
$12,999End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Feb 2, 2026, 5:18 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump signs any bill into law that aims to repeal or alter presidential term limits as defined by the 22nd Amendment to the U.S. Constitution, such a bill is otherwise passed into law, or if the U.S. Supreme Court rules in a way that would permit a president to serve more than two terms by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Any law signed meeting these criteria will count, even if its implementation is immediately halted or delayed by judicial or other actions.
This market's resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration and U.S. Supreme Court decisions.The constitutional barriers to repealing the 22nd Amendment explain traders' strong consensus against any 2026 repeal. Amending the Constitution requires two-thirds majorities in both chambers of Congress followed by ratification from three-fourths of the states, a threshold rarely met even under unified government. Recent proposals such as H.J.Res.29 have remained stalled in committee with no floor action or broad bipartisan backing as of mid-2026. President Trump's public comments have acknowledged the legal constraints while occasionally joking about extended service, yet no legislative or state-level momentum has emerged ahead of the midterm elections. Scenarios that could still shift odds include a surprise post-election push for a constitutional convention or rapid state ratifications following an unforeseen crisis, though both remain remote given current congressional dynamics and historical precedent.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump signs any bill into law that aims to repeal or alter presidential term limits as defined by the 22nd Amendment to the U.S. Constitution, such a bill is otherwise passed into law, or if the U.S. Supreme Court rules in a way that would permit a president to serve more than two terms by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Any law signed meeting these criteria will count, even if its implementation is immediately halted or delayed by judicial or other actions.
This market's resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration and U.S. Supreme Court decisions.
Any law signed meeting these criteria will count, even if its implementation is immediately halted or delayed by judicial or other actions.
This market's resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration and U.S. Supreme Court decisions.
Volume
$12,999End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Feb 2, 2026, 5:18 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The constitutional barriers to repealing the 22nd Amendment explain traders' strong consensus against any 2026 repeal. Amending the Constitution requires two-thirds majorities in both chambers of Congress followed by ratification from three-fourths of the states, a threshold rarely met even under unified government. Recent proposals such as H.J.Res.29 have remained stalled in committee with no floor action or broad bipartisan backing as of mid-2026. President Trump's public comments have acknowledged the legal constraints while occasionally joking about extended service, yet no legislative or state-level momentum has emerged ahead of the midterm elections. Scenarios that could still shift odds include a surprise post-election push for a constitutional convention or rapid state ratifications following an unforeseen crisis, though both remain remote given current congressional dynamics and historical precedent.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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