NASA's Center for Near-Earth Object Studies (CNEOS) Sentry system and ESA's NEO Risk List show no cataloged near-Earth objects with even a remote probability of Earth impact in 2026, anchoring trader consensus at 69% implied odds for "No" on a 5-kiloton meteor airburst. Historical CNEOS fireball data reveals such bolides—equivalent to ~7-meter objects exploding at ~36 km altitude—occur globally roughly once every 1–2 years, sustaining the 31% "Yes" probability for undetected small asteroids or comets evading surveys. No events exceeding 0.25 kt have been recorded in 2026 year-to-date, with recent discoveries like asteroid 2026 JH2 confirming safe flybys. Ongoing NEO Surveyor mission development promises enhanced detection, while daily CNEOS updates could shift sentiment rapidly.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourFrappe météorique de 5kt en 2026 ?
Frappe météorique de 5kt en 2026 ?
Oui
$300,045 Vol.
$300,045 Vol.
31 déc. 2026
Oui
$300,045 Vol.
$300,045 Vol.
31 déc. 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 5 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.NASA's Center for Near-Earth Object Studies (CNEOS) Sentry system and ESA's NEO Risk List show no cataloged near-Earth objects with even a remote probability of Earth impact in 2026, anchoring trader consensus at 69% implied odds for "No" on a 5-kiloton meteor airburst. Historical CNEOS fireball data reveals such bolides—equivalent to ~7-meter objects exploding at ~36 km altitude—occur globally roughly once every 1–2 years, sustaining the 31% "Yes" probability for undetected small asteroids or comets evading surveys. No events exceeding 0.25 kt have been recorded in 2026 year-to-date, with recent discoveries like asteroid 2026 JH2 confirming safe flybys. Ongoing NEO Surveyor mission development promises enhanced detection, while daily CNEOS updates could shift sentiment rapidly.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 5 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
Marché ouvert : Dec 31, 2025, 12:04 PM ET
Volume
$300,045Date de fin
31 déc. 2026Marché ouvert
Dec 31, 2025, 12:04 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 5 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.NASA's Center for Near-Earth Object Studies (CNEOS) Sentry system and ESA's NEO Risk List show no cataloged near-Earth objects with even a remote probability of Earth impact in 2026, anchoring trader consensus at 69% implied odds for "No" on a 5-kiloton meteor airburst. Historical CNEOS fireball data reveals such bolides—equivalent to ~7-meter objects exploding at ~36 km altitude—occur globally roughly once every 1–2 years, sustaining the 31% "Yes" probability for undetected small asteroids or comets evading surveys. No events exceeding 0.25 kt have been recorded in 2026 year-to-date, with recent discoveries like asteroid 2026 JH2 confirming safe flybys. Ongoing NEO Surveyor mission development promises enhanced detection, while daily CNEOS updates could shift sentiment rapidly.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 5 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
Volume
$300,045Date de fin
31 déc. 2026Marché ouvert
Dec 31, 2025, 12:04 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...NASA's Center for Near-Earth Object Studies (CNEOS) Sentry system and ESA's NEO Risk List show no cataloged near-Earth objects with even a remote probability of Earth impact in 2026, anchoring trader consensus at 69% implied odds for "No" on a 5-kiloton meteor airburst. Historical CNEOS fireball data reveals such bolides—equivalent to ~7-meter objects exploding at ~36 km altitude—occur globally roughly once every 1–2 years, sustaining the 31% "Yes" probability for undetected small asteroids or comets evading surveys. No events exceeding 0.25 kt have been recorded in 2026 year-to-date, with recent discoveries like asteroid 2026 JH2 confirming safe flybys. Ongoing NEO Surveyor mission development promises enhanced detection, while daily CNEOS updates could shift sentiment rapidly.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
Méfiez-vous des liens externes.
Méfiez-vous des liens externes.
Questions fréquentes