Ongoing military tensions between Iran, the United States, and Israel have sharply curtailed commercial vessel movements through the Strait of Hormuz, driving trader consensus toward an average of just 0-10 daily transits by the end of May. Since late February 2026, Iranian forces have imposed restrictions and conducted attacks on shipping, reducing traffic from a pre-conflict baseline of roughly 120-140 vessels per day to single-digit or low-teen levels in early May. Recent developments, including paused U.S. escort operations, stalled diplomatic talks on reopening routes, and new Iranian rules targeting non-cooperating vessels, have sustained the low volume. This environment of heightened risk, insurance limitations, and redirected traffic keeps most commercial operators away, aligning market pricing with the persistent disruption observed through mid-May.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourAvg. # of ships transiting Strait of Hormuz end of May?
Avg. # of ships transiting Strait of Hormuz end of May?
0-10 87%
10-20 6%
20-40 3.4%
60+ 3.0%
$319,830 Vol.
$319,830 Vol.
31 mai 2026
0-10
87%
10-20
6%
20-40
3%
40-60
2%
60+
3%
0-10 87%
10-20 6%
20-40 3.4%
60+ 3.0%
$319,830 Vol.
$319,830 Vol.
31 mai 2026
0-10
$170,828 Vol.
87%
10-20
$42,854 Vol.
6%
20-40
$34,028 Vol.
3%
40-60
$27,425 Vol.
2%
60+
$44,695 Vol.
3%
This market will resolve according to the 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz that IMF Portwatch reports for May 31, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as data for the specified date has been published. If no data for the specified date has been published by June 14, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on data for the most recent date prior to May 31, 2026, for which data is available.
This market will resolve based on the first publication of data for May 31, 2026. Any subsequent revisions will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.Ongoing military tensions between Iran, the United States, and Israel have sharply curtailed commercial vessel movements through the Strait of Hormuz, driving trader consensus toward an average of just 0-10 daily transits by the end of May. Since late February 2026, Iranian forces have imposed restrictions and conducted attacks on shipping, reducing traffic from a pre-conflict baseline of roughly 120-140 vessels per day to single-digit or low-teen levels in early May. Recent developments, including paused U.S. escort operations, stalled diplomatic talks on reopening routes, and new Iranian rules targeting non-cooperating vessels, have sustained the low volume. This environment of heightened risk, insurance limitations, and redirected traffic keeps most commercial operators away, aligning market pricing with the persistent disruption observed through mid-May.
This market will resolve according to the 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz that IMF Portwatch reports for May 31, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as data for the specified date has been published. If no data for the specified date has been published by June 14, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on data for the most recent date prior to May 31, 2026, for which data is available.
This market will resolve based on the first publication of data for May 31, 2026. Any subsequent revisions will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as data for the specified date has been published. If no data for the specified date has been published by June 14, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on data for the most recent date prior to May 31, 2026, for which data is available.
This market will resolve based on the first publication of data for May 31, 2026. Any subsequent revisions will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Marché ouvert : Apr 30, 2026, 3:15 PM ET
Volume
$319,830Date de fin
31 mai 2026Marché ouvert
Apr 30, 2026, 3:15 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz that IMF Portwatch reports for May 31, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as data for the specified date has been published. If no data for the specified date has been published by June 14, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on data for the most recent date prior to May 31, 2026, for which data is available.
This market will resolve based on the first publication of data for May 31, 2026. Any subsequent revisions will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.Ongoing military tensions between Iran, the United States, and Israel have sharply curtailed commercial vessel movements through the Strait of Hormuz, driving trader consensus toward an average of just 0-10 daily transits by the end of May. Since late February 2026, Iranian forces have imposed restrictions and conducted attacks on shipping, reducing traffic from a pre-conflict baseline of roughly 120-140 vessels per day to single-digit or low-teen levels in early May. Recent developments, including paused U.S. escort operations, stalled diplomatic talks on reopening routes, and new Iranian rules targeting non-cooperating vessels, have sustained the low volume. This environment of heightened risk, insurance limitations, and redirected traffic keeps most commercial operators away, aligning market pricing with the persistent disruption observed through mid-May.
This market will resolve according to the 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz that IMF Portwatch reports for May 31, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as data for the specified date has been published. If no data for the specified date has been published by June 14, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on data for the most recent date prior to May 31, 2026, for which data is available.
This market will resolve based on the first publication of data for May 31, 2026. Any subsequent revisions will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as data for the specified date has been published. If no data for the specified date has been published by June 14, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on data for the most recent date prior to May 31, 2026, for which data is available.
This market will resolve based on the first publication of data for May 31, 2026. Any subsequent revisions will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Volume
$319,830Date de fin
31 mai 2026Marché ouvert
Apr 30, 2026, 3:15 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Ongoing military tensions between Iran, the United States, and Israel have sharply curtailed commercial vessel movements through the Strait of Hormuz, driving trader consensus toward an average of just 0-10 daily transits by the end of May. Since late February 2026, Iranian forces have imposed restrictions and conducted attacks on shipping, reducing traffic from a pre-conflict baseline of roughly 120-140 vessels per day to single-digit or low-teen levels in early May. Recent developments, including paused U.S. escort operations, stalled diplomatic talks on reopening routes, and new Iranian rules targeting non-cooperating vessels, have sustained the low volume. This environment of heightened risk, insurance limitations, and redirected traffic keeps most commercial operators away, aligning market pricing with the persistent disruption observed through mid-May.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
Méfiez-vous des liens externes.
Méfiez-vous des liens externes.
Questions fréquentes