Ongoing restrictions imposed by Iran since late February amid its conflict with the United States and Israel have kept commercial traffic through the Strait of Hormuz at a fraction of normal levels, with daily transits frequently in the single digits or lower throughout April and early May. Recent US efforts to escort neutral vessels under initiatives like Project Freedom produced only limited passages before pausing amid renewed Iranian warnings and procedural hurdles, leaving hundreds of ships stranded. Marine tracking data from sources such as Kpler and Lloyd’s List show overall monthly volume running at roughly 3-5 percent of pre-crisis averages near 100 vessels per day. Traders assign an 87 percent implied probability to an average of 0-10 ships by the end of May, reflecting the absence of any sustained reopening or de-escalation that would restore meaningful transit volumes before the resolution window closes.