Current forecast models indicate a daily maximum near 26 °C for Chongqing on May 18, reflecting the region’s early-summer subtropical regime of light southerly flow, moderate boundary-layer moisture, and intermittent cloud cover that caps afternoon heating. Ensemble guidance clusters tightly between 25 °C and 27 °C, with the narrow spread arising from minor differences in low-level humidity and shortwave radiation reaching the surface; historical May averages hover around 27 °C, but persistent light rain in recent days has kept surface temperatures slightly suppressed. Traders therefore assign roughly equal weight to the three leading outcomes, recognizing that even modest changes in convective timing or wind direction could shift the recorded high by 1–2 °C before resolution.