Iran’s recent imposition of new regulatory controls over the Strait of Hormuz, including mandatory prior approvals coordinated with the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and a planned toll-collection mechanism through a newly established Persian Gulf Strait Authority, has reinforced trader expectations that Tehran will not grant unrestricted commercial transit by May 31. These measures, announced in mid-May amid ongoing U.S.-Iran naval standoffs and lingering ceasefire disputes, allow Iran to screen vessels, collect fees, and limit access for ships linked to sanctioned nations while maintaining de facto oversight. Limited tanker traffic has resumed under these conditions, but full unrestricted passage remains blocked by Iranian assertions of sovereignty and enforcement actions such as vessel seizures. The 14-day window offers little scope for a sudden diplomatic reversal before the deadline.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour$427,294 Vol.
$427,294 Vol.
31 mai 2026
$427,294 Vol.
$427,294 Vol.
31 mai 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to allow unrestricted commercial navigation of the Strait of Hormuz by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Iran allowing unrestricted commercial navigation of the Strait of Hormuz refers to a public agreement by Iran that commercial vessels may transit the Strait of Hormuz without Iranian authorization/permission, payment of fees to Iran, or other Iran-imposed restrictions. A public agreement that all restrictions imposed on commercial vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz by Iran as part of the US-Iran conflict which began on February 28, 2026, will be definitively lifted, without replacement by new restrictions, will qualify.
A qualifying agreement must clearly indicate that Iran will not impose restrictions on commercial transit through the Strait of Hormuz. General statements about the strait being “open”, de-escalation, security, increased transit in the Strait, or stability in the region, which do not clearly indicate that Iran will allow unrestricted commercial transit through the Strait of Hormuz, will not qualify.
An official pledge by Iran to allow unrestricted commercial navigation of the Strait of Hormuz will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to allow unrestricted commercial navigation of the Strait of Hormuz as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the government of Iran and a consensus of credible reporting.Iran’s recent imposition of new regulatory controls over the Strait of Hormuz, including mandatory prior approvals coordinated with the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and a planned toll-collection mechanism through a newly established Persian Gulf Strait Authority, has reinforced trader expectations that Tehran will not grant unrestricted commercial transit by May 31. These measures, announced in mid-May amid ongoing U.S.-Iran naval standoffs and lingering ceasefire disputes, allow Iran to screen vessels, collect fees, and limit access for ships linked to sanctioned nations while maintaining de facto oversight. Limited tanker traffic has resumed under these conditions, but full unrestricted passage remains blocked by Iranian assertions of sovereignty and enforcement actions such as vessel seizures. The 14-day window offers little scope for a sudden diplomatic reversal before the deadline.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to allow unrestricted commercial navigation of the Strait of Hormuz by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Iran allowing unrestricted commercial navigation of the Strait of Hormuz refers to a public agreement by Iran that commercial vessels may transit the Strait of Hormuz without Iranian authorization/permission, payment of fees to Iran, or other Iran-imposed restrictions. A public agreement that all restrictions imposed on commercial vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz by Iran as part of the US-Iran conflict which began on February 28, 2026, will be definitively lifted, without replacement by new restrictions, will qualify.
A qualifying agreement must clearly indicate that Iran will not impose restrictions on commercial transit through the Strait of Hormuz. General statements about the strait being “open”, de-escalation, security, increased transit in the Strait, or stability in the region, which do not clearly indicate that Iran will allow unrestricted commercial transit through the Strait of Hormuz, will not qualify.
An official pledge by Iran to allow unrestricted commercial navigation of the Strait of Hormuz will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to allow unrestricted commercial navigation of the Strait of Hormuz as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the government of Iran and a consensus of credible reporting.
Iran allowing unrestricted commercial navigation of the Strait of Hormuz refers to a public agreement by Iran that commercial vessels may transit the Strait of Hormuz without Iranian authorization/permission, payment of fees to Iran, or other Iran-imposed restrictions. A public agreement that all restrictions imposed on commercial vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz by Iran as part of the US-Iran conflict which began on February 28, 2026, will be definitively lifted, without replacement by new restrictions, will qualify.
A qualifying agreement must clearly indicate that Iran will not impose restrictions on commercial transit through the Strait of Hormuz. General statements about the strait being “open”, de-escalation, security, increased transit in the Strait, or stability in the region, which do not clearly indicate that Iran will allow unrestricted commercial transit through the Strait of Hormuz, will not qualify.
An official pledge by Iran to allow unrestricted commercial navigation of the Strait of Hormuz will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to allow unrestricted commercial navigation of the Strait of Hormuz as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the government of Iran and a consensus of credible reporting.
Marché ouvert : Apr 28, 2026, 10:38 PM ET
Volume
$427,294Date de fin
31 mai 2026Marché ouvert
Apr 28, 2026, 10:38 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to allow unrestricted commercial navigation of the Strait of Hormuz by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Iran allowing unrestricted commercial navigation of the Strait of Hormuz refers to a public agreement by Iran that commercial vessels may transit the Strait of Hormuz without Iranian authorization/permission, payment of fees to Iran, or other Iran-imposed restrictions. A public agreement that all restrictions imposed on commercial vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz by Iran as part of the US-Iran conflict which began on February 28, 2026, will be definitively lifted, without replacement by new restrictions, will qualify.
A qualifying agreement must clearly indicate that Iran will not impose restrictions on commercial transit through the Strait of Hormuz. General statements about the strait being “open”, de-escalation, security, increased transit in the Strait, or stability in the region, which do not clearly indicate that Iran will allow unrestricted commercial transit through the Strait of Hormuz, will not qualify.
An official pledge by Iran to allow unrestricted commercial navigation of the Strait of Hormuz will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to allow unrestricted commercial navigation of the Strait of Hormuz as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the government of Iran and a consensus of credible reporting.Iran’s recent imposition of new regulatory controls over the Strait of Hormuz, including mandatory prior approvals coordinated with the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and a planned toll-collection mechanism through a newly established Persian Gulf Strait Authority, has reinforced trader expectations that Tehran will not grant unrestricted commercial transit by May 31. These measures, announced in mid-May amid ongoing U.S.-Iran naval standoffs and lingering ceasefire disputes, allow Iran to screen vessels, collect fees, and limit access for ships linked to sanctioned nations while maintaining de facto oversight. Limited tanker traffic has resumed under these conditions, but full unrestricted passage remains blocked by Iranian assertions of sovereignty and enforcement actions such as vessel seizures. The 14-day window offers little scope for a sudden diplomatic reversal before the deadline.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to allow unrestricted commercial navigation of the Strait of Hormuz by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Iran allowing unrestricted commercial navigation of the Strait of Hormuz refers to a public agreement by Iran that commercial vessels may transit the Strait of Hormuz without Iranian authorization/permission, payment of fees to Iran, or other Iran-imposed restrictions. A public agreement that all restrictions imposed on commercial vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz by Iran as part of the US-Iran conflict which began on February 28, 2026, will be definitively lifted, without replacement by new restrictions, will qualify.
A qualifying agreement must clearly indicate that Iran will not impose restrictions on commercial transit through the Strait of Hormuz. General statements about the strait being “open”, de-escalation, security, increased transit in the Strait, or stability in the region, which do not clearly indicate that Iran will allow unrestricted commercial transit through the Strait of Hormuz, will not qualify.
An official pledge by Iran to allow unrestricted commercial navigation of the Strait of Hormuz will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to allow unrestricted commercial navigation of the Strait of Hormuz as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the government of Iran and a consensus of credible reporting.
Iran allowing unrestricted commercial navigation of the Strait of Hormuz refers to a public agreement by Iran that commercial vessels may transit the Strait of Hormuz without Iranian authorization/permission, payment of fees to Iran, or other Iran-imposed restrictions. A public agreement that all restrictions imposed on commercial vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz by Iran as part of the US-Iran conflict which began on February 28, 2026, will be definitively lifted, without replacement by new restrictions, will qualify.
A qualifying agreement must clearly indicate that Iran will not impose restrictions on commercial transit through the Strait of Hormuz. General statements about the strait being “open”, de-escalation, security, increased transit in the Strait, or stability in the region, which do not clearly indicate that Iran will allow unrestricted commercial transit through the Strait of Hormuz, will not qualify.
An official pledge by Iran to allow unrestricted commercial navigation of the Strait of Hormuz will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to allow unrestricted commercial navigation of the Strait of Hormuz as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the government of Iran and a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$427,294Date de fin
31 mai 2026Marché ouvert
Apr 28, 2026, 10:38 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Iran’s recent imposition of new regulatory controls over the Strait of Hormuz, including mandatory prior approvals coordinated with the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and a planned toll-collection mechanism through a newly established Persian Gulf Strait Authority, has reinforced trader expectations that Tehran will not grant unrestricted commercial transit by May 31. These measures, announced in mid-May amid ongoing U.S.-Iran naval standoffs and lingering ceasefire disputes, allow Iran to screen vessels, collect fees, and limit access for ships linked to sanctioned nations while maintaining de facto oversight. Limited tanker traffic has resumed under these conditions, but full unrestricted passage remains blocked by Iranian assertions of sovereignty and enforcement actions such as vessel seizures. The 14-day window offers little scope for a sudden diplomatic reversal before the deadline.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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