**Recent polling across multiple firms shows consistent majority opposition to Alberta pursuing independence.** Surveys from May through mid-August 2026 indicate 60-72% of respondents favor remaining in Canada outright, while only 18-33% support initiating steps toward a binding separation referendum or voting yes on independence itself. Support for the pro-separation option has declined notably from earlier 2026 levels. Premier Danielle Smith and the United Conservative Party government have publicly stated their preference for a strong Alberta within a united Canada, with Smith confirming she will vote to remain on the October 19, 2026, referendum question. That ballot asks voters whether Alberta should stay in Canada or begin the constitutional process for a future binding vote on separation, rather than deciding independence directly. These results, combined with constitutional requirements for any secession path and the absence of broader institutional momentum, underpin trader expectations that no independence vote will occur in 2026.