**No known near-Earth objects carry trajectories capable of a 5 kt or larger atmospheric impact in the remaining months of 2026, underpinning the market’s 75.5% implied probability for “No.”** NASA’s CNEOS Sentry system and ESA risk lists show only distant, safe approaches by small meter-scale bodies, consistent with the low historical frequency of airbursts reaching this energy threshold. Recent detections, including multiple close passes in early September, have refined orbits without revealing new threats, while ongoing surveillance continues to rule out larger undiscovered impactors. Trader consensus reflects the statistical rarity of such events absent any cataloged hazards or anomalous fireball activity through year-end.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गया2026 में 5kt उल्का हड़ताल?
2026 में 5kt उल्का हड़ताल?
हाँ
25% संभावना
$313,717 वॉल्यूम
$313,717 वॉल्यूम
31 दिस, 2026
हाँ
25% संभावना
$313,717 वॉल्यूम
$313,717 वॉल्यूम
31 दिस, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 5 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.**No known near-Earth objects carry trajectories capable of a 5 kt or larger atmospheric impact in the remaining months of 2026, underpinning the market’s 75.5% implied probability for “No.”** NASA’s CNEOS Sentry system and ESA risk lists show only distant, safe approaches by small meter-scale bodies, consistent with the low historical frequency of airbursts reaching this energy threshold. Recent detections, including multiple close passes in early September, have refined orbits without revealing new threats, while ongoing surveillance continues to rule out larger undiscovered impactors. Trader consensus reflects the statistical rarity of such events absent any cataloged hazards or anomalous fireball activity through year-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 5 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
बाज़ार खुला: Dec 31, 2025, 12:04 PM ET
वॉल्यूम
$313,717समाप्ति तिथि
1 जन, 2027बाज़ार खुला
Dec 31, 2025, 12:04 PM ETरिज़ॉल्वर
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 5 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.**No known near-Earth objects carry trajectories capable of a 5 kt or larger atmospheric impact in the remaining months of 2026, underpinning the market’s 75.5% implied probability for “No.”** NASA’s CNEOS Sentry system and ESA risk lists show only distant, safe approaches by small meter-scale bodies, consistent with the low historical frequency of airbursts reaching this energy threshold. Recent detections, including multiple close passes in early September, have refined orbits without revealing new threats, while ongoing surveillance continues to rule out larger undiscovered impactors. Trader consensus reflects the statistical rarity of such events absent any cataloged hazards or anomalous fireball activity through year-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 5 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
वॉल्यूम
$313,717समाप्ति तिथि
1 जन, 2027बाज़ार खुला
Dec 31, 2025, 12:04 PM ETरिज़ॉल्वर
0x65070BE91...**No known near-Earth objects carry trajectories capable of a 5 kt or larger atmospheric impact in the remaining months of 2026, underpinning the market’s 75.5% implied probability for “No.”** NASA’s CNEOS Sentry system and ESA risk lists show only distant, safe approaches by small meter-scale bodies, consistent with the low historical frequency of airbursts reaching this energy threshold. Recent detections, including multiple close passes in early September, have refined orbits without revealing new threats, while ongoing surveillance continues to rule out larger undiscovered impactors. Trader consensus reflects the statistical rarity of such events absent any cataloged hazards or anomalous fireball activity through year-end.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गया
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