The dominant 99.8% market-implied probability for a 7°C low in London on May 16 stems from the latest Met Office and ECMWF forecast runs showing a stable nocturnal minimum near that threshold under high-pressure influence with light winds and clear skies. Mid-May climatological baselines place typical overnight lows at 8–10°C, yet current model consensus indicates modest cooling from a lingering maritime air mass without significant cold-air advection. No major updates are expected before final observations, though rapid shifts in cloud cover or wind could nudge readings by 1–2°C. Historical analogs confirm such conditions rarely produce outliers below 6°C this time of year, supporting the tight trader consensus around the primary forecast outcome.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · DiperbaruiLowest temperature in London on May 16?
Lowest temperature in London on May 16?
7°C 99.8%
4°C <1%
3°C <1%
0°C or below <1%
$23,597 Vol.
$23,597 Vol.
May 16, 2026
0°C or below
<1%
1°C
<1%
2°C
<1%
3°C
<1%
4°C
<1%
5°C
<1%
6°C
<1%
7°C
100%
8°C
<1%
9°C
<1%
10°C or higher
<1%
7°C 99.8%
4°C <1%
3°C <1%
0°C or below <1%
$23,597 Vol.
$23,597 Vol.
May 16, 2026
0°C or below
$345 Vol.
<1%
1°C
$910 Vol.
<1%
2°C
$508 Vol.
<1%
3°C
$3,347 Vol.
<1%
4°C
$4,307 Vol.
<1%
5°C
$972 Vol.
<1%
6°C
$1,306 Vol.
<1%
7°C
$2,454 Vol.
100%
8°C
$827 Vol.
<1%
9°C
$573 Vol.
<1%
10°C or higher
$8,048 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the London City Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.The dominant 99.8% market-implied probability for a 7°C low in London on May 16 stems from the latest Met Office and ECMWF forecast runs showing a stable nocturnal minimum near that threshold under high-pressure influence with light winds and clear skies. Mid-May climatological baselines place typical overnight lows at 8–10°C, yet current model consensus indicates modest cooling from a lingering maritime air mass without significant cold-air advection. No major updates are expected before final observations, though rapid shifts in cloud cover or wind could nudge readings by 1–2°C. Historical analogs confirm such conditions rarely produce outliers below 6°C this time of year, supporting the tight trader consensus around the primary forecast outcome.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the London City Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the London City Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Pasar Dibuka: May 13, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
Volume
$23,597Tanggal Berakhir
May 16, 2026Pasar Dibuka
May 13, 2026, 12:30 AM ETSumber Resolusi
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLCThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the London City Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.The dominant 99.8% market-implied probability for a 7°C low in London on May 16 stems from the latest Met Office and ECMWF forecast runs showing a stable nocturnal minimum near that threshold under high-pressure influence with light winds and clear skies. Mid-May climatological baselines place typical overnight lows at 8–10°C, yet current model consensus indicates modest cooling from a lingering maritime air mass without significant cold-air advection. No major updates are expected before final observations, though rapid shifts in cloud cover or wind could nudge readings by 1–2°C. Historical analogs confirm such conditions rarely produce outliers below 6°C this time of year, supporting the tight trader consensus around the primary forecast outcome.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the London City Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the London City Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$23,597Tanggal Berakhir
May 16, 2026Pasar Dibuka
May 13, 2026, 12:30 AM ETSumber Resolusi
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLCThe dominant 99.8% market-implied probability for a 7°C low in London on May 16 stems from the latest Met Office and ECMWF forecast runs showing a stable nocturnal minimum near that threshold under high-pressure influence with light winds and clear skies. Mid-May climatological baselines place typical overnight lows at 8–10°C, yet current model consensus indicates modest cooling from a lingering maritime air mass without significant cold-air advection. No major updates are expected before final observations, though rapid shifts in cloud cover or wind could nudge readings by 1–2°C. Historical analogs confirm such conditions rarely produce outliers below 6°C this time of year, supporting the tight trader consensus around the primary forecast outcome.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
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