Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 33% implied probability for Tokyo's lowest temperature reaching 15°C on May 15, narrowly ahead of 14°C at 26.5% and 16°C at 13.5%, reflecting tight clustering in Japan Meteorological Agency guidance and global models like ECMWF and GFS around the mid-May climatological normal of 14.5°C. This uncertainty stems from variable overnight cloud cover inhibiting radiative cooling, light winds potentially allowing deeper chills, and Tokyo's urban heat island effect tempering lows above historical May 15 averages near 15°C. Ensemble forecasts show slight model spread due to a stable high-pressure ridge, with resolution hinging on evening observations and final JMA updates expected within hours; below 13°C or above 17°C faces steep barriers from seasonal baselines.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · DiperbaruiLowest temperature in Tokyo on May 15?
Lowest temperature in Tokyo on May 15?
15°C 32%
14°C 30%
13°C 15.3%
16°C 15%
BARU
BARU
May 15, 2026
12°C or below
1%
13°C
15%
14°C
30%
15°C
32%
16°C
14%
17°C
3%
18°C
<1%
19°C
<1%
20°C
<1%
21°C
<1%
22°C or higher
<1%
15°C 32%
14°C 30%
13°C 15.3%
16°C 15%
BARU
BARU
May 15, 2026
12°C or below
$221 Vol.
1%
13°C
$133 Vol.
15%
14°C
$69 Vol.
30%
15°C
$130 Vol.
32%
16°C
$196 Vol.
14%
17°C
$365 Vol.
3%
18°C
$858 Vol.
<1%
19°C
$398 Vol.
<1%
20°C
$565 Vol.
<1%
21°C
$874 Vol.
<1%
22°C or higher
$341 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 33% implied probability for Tokyo's lowest temperature reaching 15°C on May 15, narrowly ahead of 14°C at 26.5% and 16°C at 13.5%, reflecting tight clustering in Japan Meteorological Agency guidance and global models like ECMWF and GFS around the mid-May climatological normal of 14.5°C. This uncertainty stems from variable overnight cloud cover inhibiting radiative cooling, light winds potentially allowing deeper chills, and Tokyo's urban heat island effect tempering lows above historical May 15 averages near 15°C. Ensemble forecasts show slight model spread due to a stable high-pressure ridge, with resolution hinging on evening observations and final JMA updates expected within hours; below 13°C or above 17°C faces steep barriers from seasonal baselines.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Pasar Dibuka: May 11, 2026, 7:07 PM ET
Volume
$4,149Tanggal Berakhir
May 15, 2026Pasar Dibuka
May 11, 2026, 7:07 PM ETSumber Resolusi
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTTResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 33% implied probability for Tokyo's lowest temperature reaching 15°C on May 15, narrowly ahead of 14°C at 26.5% and 16°C at 13.5%, reflecting tight clustering in Japan Meteorological Agency guidance and global models like ECMWF and GFS around the mid-May climatological normal of 14.5°C. This uncertainty stems from variable overnight cloud cover inhibiting radiative cooling, light winds potentially allowing deeper chills, and Tokyo's urban heat island effect tempering lows above historical May 15 averages near 15°C. Ensemble forecasts show slight model spread due to a stable high-pressure ridge, with resolution hinging on evening observations and final JMA updates expected within hours; below 13°C or above 17°C faces steep barriers from seasonal baselines.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$4,149Tanggal Berakhir
May 15, 2026Pasar Dibuka
May 11, 2026, 7:07 PM ETSumber Resolusi
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTTResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 33% implied probability for Tokyo's lowest temperature reaching 15°C on May 15, narrowly ahead of 14°C at 26.5% and 16°C at 13.5%, reflecting tight clustering in Japan Meteorological Agency guidance and global models like ECMWF and GFS around the mid-May climatological normal of 14.5°C. This uncertainty stems from variable overnight cloud cover inhibiting radiative cooling, light winds potentially allowing deeper chills, and Tokyo's urban heat island effect tempering lows above historical May 15 averages near 15°C. Ensemble forecasts show slight model spread due to a stable high-pressure ridge, with resolution hinging on evening observations and final JMA updates expected within hours; below 13°C or above 17°C faces steep barriers from seasonal baselines.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
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