Recent official forecasts from the Hong Kong Observatory and model consensus indicate unsettled southwest monsoon conditions with heavy showers and thunderstorms expected on June 15, which should suppress daytime heating and cap the maximum temperature near 28–30°C. Above-normal seasonal temperatures for June–August support the potential for readings around the historical average high of 29–31°C, yet persistent cloud cover and precipitation reduce solar insolation and limit upward spikes. Traders appear to weigh these near-term dynamics more heavily than the broader warming trend, producing market-implied odds that cluster tightly around 28–30°C with only modest probability assigned to extremes above 31°C or below 27°C. Updated model runs and the next HKO briefing will likely refine these probabilities ahead of resolution.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoHighest temperature in Hong Kong on June 15?
Highest temperature in Hong Kong on June 15?
29°C 43%
28°C 26%
30°C 24%
31°C 4.4%
NUOVO
$39,640 Vol.
NUOVO
$39,640 Vol.
15 giu 2026
23°C or below
<1%
24°C
<1%
25°C
<1%
26°C
<1%
27°C
<1%
28°C
26%
29°C
43%
30°C
24%
31°C
4%
32°C
1%
33°C or higher
<1%
29°C 43%
28°C 26%
30°C 24%
31°C 4.4%
NUOVO
$39,640 Vol.
NUOVO
$39,640 Vol.
15 giu 2026
23°C or below
$934 Vol.
<1%
24°C
$298 Vol.
<1%
25°C
$2,040 Vol.
<1%
26°C
$2,926 Vol.
<1%
27°C
$17,577 Vol.
<1%
28°C
$3,911 Vol.
26%
29°C
$3,694 Vol.
43%
30°C
$3,030 Vol.
24%
31°C
$2,745 Vol.
4%
32°C
$1,426 Vol.
1%
33°C or higher
$1,130 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 15 Jun '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Recent official forecasts from the Hong Kong Observatory and model consensus indicate unsettled southwest monsoon conditions with heavy showers and thunderstorms expected on June 15, which should suppress daytime heating and cap the maximum temperature near 28–30°C. Above-normal seasonal temperatures for June–August support the potential for readings around the historical average high of 29–31°C, yet persistent cloud cover and precipitation reduce solar insolation and limit upward spikes. Traders appear to weigh these near-term dynamics more heavily than the broader warming trend, producing market-implied odds that cluster tightly around 28–30°C with only modest probability assigned to extremes above 31°C or below 27°C. Updated model runs and the next HKO briefing will likely refine these probabilities ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 15 Jun '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercato aperto: Jun 13, 2026, 12:07 AM ET
Volume
$39,640Data di fine
15 giu 2026Mercato aperto
Jun 13, 2026, 12:07 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 15 Jun '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Recent official forecasts from the Hong Kong Observatory and model consensus indicate unsettled southwest monsoon conditions with heavy showers and thunderstorms expected on June 15, which should suppress daytime heating and cap the maximum temperature near 28–30°C. Above-normal seasonal temperatures for June–August support the potential for readings around the historical average high of 29–31°C, yet persistent cloud cover and precipitation reduce solar insolation and limit upward spikes. Traders appear to weigh these near-term dynamics more heavily than the broader warming trend, producing market-implied odds that cluster tightly around 28–30°C with only modest probability assigned to extremes above 31°C or below 27°C. Updated model runs and the next HKO briefing will likely refine these probabilities ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 15 Jun '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$39,640Data di fine
15 giu 2026Mercato aperto
Jun 13, 2026, 12:07 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent official forecasts from the Hong Kong Observatory and model consensus indicate unsettled southwest monsoon conditions with heavy showers and thunderstorms expected on June 15, which should suppress daytime heating and cap the maximum temperature near 28–30°C. Above-normal seasonal temperatures for June–August support the potential for readings around the historical average high of 29–31°C, yet persistent cloud cover and precipitation reduce solar insolation and limit upward spikes. Traders appear to weigh these near-term dynamics more heavily than the broader warming trend, producing market-implied odds that cluster tightly around 28–30°C with only modest probability assigned to extremes above 31°C or below 27°C. Updated model runs and the next HKO briefing will likely refine these probabilities ahead of resolution.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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