California’s 26th congressional district maintains a durable Democratic edge rooted in its voter registration advantage and consistent performance in recent cycles, even after Rep. Julia Brownley’s retirement created an open seat. Multiple Democratic candidates, including state Assemblymember Jacqui Irwin, dominate the June 2 top-two primary field, virtually guaranteeing that two Democrats will advance to the November general under California’s rules. This structural setup explains the current trader consensus favoring the Democratic Party nominee. A Republican upset would require either an unusually strong primary performance by GOP candidates or a significant national shift that alters turnout patterns in this Ventura County-based district, though historical margins and ratings from nonpartisan analysts indicate such scenarios remain limited.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日$26,372 Vol.
$26,372 Vol.
2026/11/03
民主党
93%
共和党
7%
$26,372 Vol.
$26,372 Vol.
2026/11/03
民主党
$14,001 Vol.
93%
共和党
$12,372 Vol.
7%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-26 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).California’s 26th congressional district maintains a durable Democratic edge rooted in its voter registration advantage and consistent performance in recent cycles, even after Rep. Julia Brownley’s retirement created an open seat. Multiple Democratic candidates, including state Assemblymember Jacqui Irwin, dominate the June 2 top-two primary field, virtually guaranteeing that two Democrats will advance to the November general under California’s rules. This structural setup explains the current trader consensus favoring the Democratic Party nominee. A Republican upset would require either an unusually strong primary performance by GOP candidates or a significant national shift that alters turnout patterns in this Ventura County-based district, though historical margins and ratings from nonpartisan analysts indicate such scenarios remain limited.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-26 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
マーケット開始日： Jan 28, 2026, 12:18 AM ET
音量
$26,372終了日
2026/11/03マーケット開始日
Jan 28, 2026, 12:18 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-26 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).California’s 26th congressional district maintains a durable Democratic edge rooted in its voter registration advantage and consistent performance in recent cycles, even after Rep. Julia Brownley’s retirement created an open seat. Multiple Democratic candidates, including state Assemblymember Jacqui Irwin, dominate the June 2 top-two primary field, virtually guaranteeing that two Democrats will advance to the November general under California’s rules. This structural setup explains the current trader consensus favoring the Democratic Party nominee. A Republican upset would require either an unusually strong primary performance by GOP candidates or a significant national shift that alters turnout patterns in this Ventura County-based district, though historical margins and ratings from nonpartisan analysts indicate such scenarios remain limited.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-26 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
音量
$26,372終了日
2026/11/03マーケット開始日
Jan 28, 2026, 12:18 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...California’s 26th congressional district maintains a durable Democratic edge rooted in its voter registration advantage and consistent performance in recent cycles, even after Rep. Julia Brownley’s retirement created an open seat. Multiple Democratic candidates, including state Assemblymember Jacqui Irwin, dominate the June 2 top-two primary field, virtually guaranteeing that two Democrats will advance to the November general under California’s rules. This structural setup explains the current trader consensus favoring the Democratic Party nominee. A Republican upset would require either an unusually strong primary performance by GOP candidates or a significant national shift that alters turnout patterns in this Ventura County-based district, though historical margins and ratings from nonpartisan analysts indicate such scenarios remain limited.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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