Recent first-round results and a late AtlasIntel poll showing Abelardo de la Espriella ahead of Iván Cepeda Castro by roughly eight points have shaped trader views on the June 21 runoff margin. De la Espriella’s strong performance among security-focused voters, endorsements from centrist and right-leaning figures including Paloma Valencia, and his hardline platform on crime and coca eradication contrast with Cepeda’s efforts to consolidate the left while softening positions on constitutional change to reach undecided voters. High polarization, bloc behavior from eliminated candidates, and the short campaign window keep the contest tight, with traders pricing the most likely outcome as a narrow de la Espriella victory in the 5–10 point range. Late shifts in turnout or additional endorsements could still alter the final spread.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日デ・ラ・エスプリエラ 5〜10％ 53%
デ・ラ・エスプリエージャ 10～15％ 21%
デ・ラ・エスプリエラ 0〜5% 13%
セペダ・カストロの勝利 11%
$122,818 Vol.
$122,818 Vol.
2026/06/22
デ・ラ・エスプリエラ 15％以上
6%
デ・ラ・エスプリエージャ 10～15％
21%
デ・ラ・エスプリエラ 5〜10％
53%
デ・ラ・エスプリエラ 0〜5%
13%
セペダ・カストロの勝利
11%
デ・ラ・エスプリエラ 5〜10％ 53%
デ・ラ・エスプリエージャ 10～15％ 21%
デ・ラ・エスプリエラ 0〜5% 13%
セペダ・カストロの勝利 11%
$122,818 Vol.
$122,818 Vol.
2026/06/22
デ・ラ・エスプリエラ 15％以上
$27,534 Vol.
6%
デ・ラ・エスプリエージャ 10～15％
$28,724 Vol.
21%
デ・ラ・エスプリエラ 5〜10％
$25,334 Vol.
53%
デ・ラ・エスプリエラ 0〜5%
$25,400 Vol.
13%
セペダ・カストロの勝利
$17,080 Vol.
11%
The second round of the 2026 Colombia presidential election is currently scheduled for June 21, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the second round of the 2026 Colombia presidential election.
The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely the official results as reported by the Colombian government, including Colombia's National Civil Registry (Registraduría Nacional del Estado Civil) (https://registraduria.gov.co).
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.Recent first-round results and a late AtlasIntel poll showing Abelardo de la Espriella ahead of Iván Cepeda Castro by roughly eight points have shaped trader views on the June 21 runoff margin. De la Espriella’s strong performance among security-focused voters, endorsements from centrist and right-leaning figures including Paloma Valencia, and his hardline platform on crime and coca eradication contrast with Cepeda’s efforts to consolidate the left while softening positions on constitutional change to reach undecided voters. High polarization, bloc behavior from eliminated candidates, and the short campaign window keep the contest tight, with traders pricing the most likely outcome as a narrow de la Espriella victory in the 5–10 point range. Late shifts in turnout or additional endorsements could still alter the final spread.
The second round of the 2026 Colombia presidential election is currently scheduled for June 21, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the second round of the 2026 Colombia presidential election.
The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely the official results as reported by the Colombian government, including Colombia's National Civil Registry (Registraduría Nacional del Estado Civil) (https://registraduria.gov.co).
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the second round of the 2026 Colombia presidential election.
The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely the official results as reported by the Colombian government, including Colombia's National Civil Registry (Registraduría Nacional del Estado Civil) (https://registraduria.gov.co).
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
マーケット開始日： Jun 5, 2026, 3:44 PM ET
音量
$122,818終了日
2026/06/22マーケット開始日
Jun 5, 2026, 3:44 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The second round of the 2026 Colombia presidential election is currently scheduled for June 21, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the second round of the 2026 Colombia presidential election.
The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely the official results as reported by the Colombian government, including Colombia's National Civil Registry (Registraduría Nacional del Estado Civil) (https://registraduria.gov.co).
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.Recent first-round results and a late AtlasIntel poll showing Abelardo de la Espriella ahead of Iván Cepeda Castro by roughly eight points have shaped trader views on the June 21 runoff margin. De la Espriella’s strong performance among security-focused voters, endorsements from centrist and right-leaning figures including Paloma Valencia, and his hardline platform on crime and coca eradication contrast with Cepeda’s efforts to consolidate the left while softening positions on constitutional change to reach undecided voters. High polarization, bloc behavior from eliminated candidates, and the short campaign window keep the contest tight, with traders pricing the most likely outcome as a narrow de la Espriella victory in the 5–10 point range. Late shifts in turnout or additional endorsements could still alter the final spread.
The second round of the 2026 Colombia presidential election is currently scheduled for June 21, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the second round of the 2026 Colombia presidential election.
The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely the official results as reported by the Colombian government, including Colombia's National Civil Registry (Registraduría Nacional del Estado Civil) (https://registraduria.gov.co).
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the second round of the 2026 Colombia presidential election.
The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely the official results as reported by the Colombian government, including Colombia's National Civil Registry (Registraduría Nacional del Estado Civil) (https://registraduria.gov.co).
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
音量
$122,818終了日
2026/06/22マーケット開始日
Jun 5, 2026, 3:44 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent first-round results and a late AtlasIntel poll showing Abelardo de la Espriella ahead of Iván Cepeda Castro by roughly eight points have shaped trader views on the June 21 runoff margin. De la Espriella’s strong performance among security-focused voters, endorsements from centrist and right-leaning figures including Paloma Valencia, and his hardline platform on crime and coca eradication contrast with Cepeda’s efforts to consolidate the left while softening positions on constitutional change to reach undecided voters. High polarization, bloc behavior from eliminated candidates, and the short campaign window keep the contest tight, with traders pricing the most likely outcome as a narrow de la Espriella victory in the 5–10 point range. Late shifts in turnout or additional endorsements could still alter the final spread.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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