Recent forecasts from meteorological models indicate a maximum temperature near 20°C for São Paulo on May 18, driven by typical May cooling patterns in southeastern Brazil as the austral autumn progresses. Ensemble predictions show modest diurnal warming under variable cloud cover and light easterly winds, with minimum temperatures around 14°C supporting moderate daytime peaks. Historical climatology places May averages at 21–23°C highs, but current guidance suggests slightly below-normal conditions due to transient moisture influences. Traders assign the highest implied probability to 20°C because model consensus clusters tightly there, while nearby 19°C and 21°C outcomes reflect remaining uncertainty in exact timing of any frontal passages or insolation variations before the market resolves.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日5月18日のサンパウロの最高気温は?
20°C 31%
19°C 24%
21°C 22%
18°C 7%
15°C or below
<1%
16°C
2%
17°C
3%
18°C
7%
19°C
24%
20°C
31%
21°C
22%
22°C
7%
23°C
3%
24°C
3%
25°C or higher
1%
20°C 31%
19°C 24%
21°C 22%
18°C 7%
15°C or below
<1%
16°C
2%
17°C
3%
18°C
7%
19°C
24%
20°C
31%
21°C
22%
22°C
7%
23°C
3%
24°C
3%
25°C or higher
1%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGR.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
マーケット開始日: May 16, 2026, 12:03 AM ET
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGR.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Recent forecasts from meteorological models indicate a maximum temperature near 20°C for São Paulo on May 18, driven by typical May cooling patterns in southeastern Brazil as the austral autumn progresses. Ensemble predictions show modest diurnal warming under variable cloud cover and light easterly winds, with minimum temperatures around 14°C supporting moderate daytime peaks. Historical climatology places May averages at 21–23°C highs, but current guidance suggests slightly below-normal conditions due to transient moisture influences. Traders assign the highest implied probability to 20°C because model consensus clusters tightly there, while nearby 19°C and 21°C outcomes reflect remaining uncertainty in exact timing of any frontal passages or insolation variations before the market resolves.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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