Current National Weather Service and ensemble forecast models project a daytime high of 62–64°F for Seattle on May 18, driven by mild onshore flow and stable spring ridging with no significant cold-air advection expected. This aligns with regional climatology, where May average highs reach 65°F and sub-58°F readings occur in fewer than 5% of years at Sea-Tac. Trader consensus has priced the 58°F-or-higher outcome at 99.6% because model spreads remain narrow through the weekend, with only minor variability in cloud cover or timing of any weak front. A realistic challenge would require an unforecasted marine push or rapid overnight clearing that allows greater radiational cooling, though such shifts are rare this late in the season and would need to overcome the current 10–15°F buffer above the threshold.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日5月18日のシアトルの最高気温は?
58°F以上 99.6%
56〜57°F <1%
46~47°F <1%
42~43°F <1%
$10,385 Vol.
$10,385 Vol.
39°F以下
<1%
40〜41°F
<1%
42~43°F
<1%
44~45°F
<1%
46~47°F
<1%
48〜49°F
<1%
50~51°F
<1%
52~53°F
<1%
54~55°F
<1%
56〜57°F
<1%
58°F以上
100%
58°F以上 99.6%
56〜57°F <1%
46~47°F <1%
42~43°F <1%
$10,385 Vol.
$10,385 Vol.
39°F以下
<1%
40〜41°F
<1%
42~43°F
<1%
44~45°F
<1%
46~47°F
<1%
48〜49°F
<1%
50~51°F
<1%
52~53°F
<1%
54~55°F
<1%
56〜57°F
<1%
58°F以上
100%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Seattle-Tacoma International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/wa/seatac/KSEA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
マーケット開始日: May 16, 2026, 12:03 AM ET
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Seattle-Tacoma International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/wa/seatac/KSEA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Current National Weather Service and ensemble forecast models project a daytime high of 62–64°F for Seattle on May 18, driven by mild onshore flow and stable spring ridging with no significant cold-air advection expected. This aligns with regional climatology, where May average highs reach 65°F and sub-58°F readings occur in fewer than 5% of years at Sea-Tac. Trader consensus has priced the 58°F-or-higher outcome at 99.6% because model spreads remain narrow through the weekend, with only minor variability in cloud cover or timing of any weak front. A realistic challenge would require an unforecasted marine push or rapid overnight clearing that allows greater radiational cooling, though such shifts are rare this late in the season and would need to overcome the current 10–15°F buffer above the threshold.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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