European governments in Paris, London, and Berlin continue to favor diplomatic channels, coordinated sanctions, and support for nuclear talks over any direct military action against Iran. No official statements, troop movements, or alliance consultations have signaled preparations for strikes by June 30, consistent with these nations' long-standing preference for multilateral responses in the region. This pattern of restraint underpins the current trader consensus reflected in the 95.9% implied probability for no strikes. A major Iranian escalation targeting European interests or shipping could prompt rapid reassessment, though such developments would require clear evidence of imminent threat to shift the outlook.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日はい
$1,376,893 Vol.
$1,376,893 Vol.
はい
$1,376,893 Vol.
$1,376,893 Vol.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by French, United Kingdom, or German military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a French, United Kingdom, or German missile, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by French, United Kingdom, or German ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
マーケット開始日: Feb 16, 2026, 11:42 AM ET
Resolver
0x65070BE91...For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by French, United Kingdom, or German military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a French, United Kingdom, or German missile, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by French, United Kingdom, or German ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Resolver
0x65070BE91...European governments in Paris, London, and Berlin continue to favor diplomatic channels, coordinated sanctions, and support for nuclear talks over any direct military action against Iran. No official statements, troop movements, or alliance consultations have signaled preparations for strikes by June 30, consistent with these nations' long-standing preference for multilateral responses in the region. This pattern of restraint underpins the current trader consensus reflected in the 95.9% implied probability for no strikes. A major Iranian escalation targeting European interests or shipping could prompt rapid reassessment, though such developments would require clear evidence of imminent threat to shift the outlook.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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外部リンクに注意してください。
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