The strong Democratic lean of California's 11th congressional district, reflected in its D+36 partisan voting index and 64% Democratic voter registration, drives the current trader consensus favoring the Democratic nominee at 94.5%. Nancy Pelosi's retirement after her 2024 reelection with 81% of the vote has created an open seat, drawing a crowded Democratic primary field ahead of the June 2 top-two contest, while Republican candidates remain limited by the district's consistent electoral history. Forecasters across major outlets rate the general election as solid Democratic. A late primary upset producing an unusually weak Democratic nominee or an unprecedented turnout surge among Republican-leaning voters could narrow the margin, though both scenarios face significant structural barriers given the district's established voting patterns.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트신규
신규
2026.11.03
Democratic Party
95%
Republican Party
6%
신규
신규
2026.11.03
Democratic Party
$2,297 거래량
95%
Republican Party
$701 거래량
6%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-11 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The strong Democratic lean of California's 11th congressional district, reflected in its D+36 partisan voting index and 64% Democratic voter registration, drives the current trader consensus favoring the Democratic nominee at 94.5%. Nancy Pelosi's retirement after her 2024 reelection with 81% of the vote has created an open seat, drawing a crowded Democratic primary field ahead of the June 2 top-two contest, while Republican candidates remain limited by the district's consistent electoral history. Forecasters across major outlets rate the general election as solid Democratic. A late primary upset producing an unusually weak Democratic nominee or an unprecedented turnout surge among Republican-leaning voters could narrow the margin, though both scenarios face significant structural barriers given the district's established voting patterns.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-11 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
마켓 개설일: Jan 27, 2026, 11:56 PM ET
거래량
$2,998종료일
2026.11.03마켓 개설일
Jan 27, 2026, 11:56 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-11 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The strong Democratic lean of California's 11th congressional district, reflected in its D+36 partisan voting index and 64% Democratic voter registration, drives the current trader consensus favoring the Democratic nominee at 94.5%. Nancy Pelosi's retirement after her 2024 reelection with 81% of the vote has created an open seat, drawing a crowded Democratic primary field ahead of the June 2 top-two contest, while Republican candidates remain limited by the district's consistent electoral history. Forecasters across major outlets rate the general election as solid Democratic. A late primary upset producing an unusually weak Democratic nominee or an unprecedented turnout surge among Republican-leaning voters could narrow the margin, though both scenarios face significant structural barriers given the district's established voting patterns.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-11 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
거래량
$2,998종료일
2026.11.03마켓 개설일
Jan 27, 2026, 11:56 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The strong Democratic lean of California's 11th congressional district, reflected in its D+36 partisan voting index and 64% Democratic voter registration, drives the current trader consensus favoring the Democratic nominee at 94.5%. Nancy Pelosi's retirement after her 2024 reelection with 81% of the vote has created an open seat, drawing a crowded Democratic primary field ahead of the June 2 top-two contest, while Republican candidates remain limited by the district's consistent electoral history. Forecasters across major outlets rate the general election as solid Democratic. A late primary upset producing an unusually weak Democratic nominee or an unprecedented turnout surge among Republican-leaning voters could narrow the margin, though both scenarios face significant structural barriers given the district's established voting patterns.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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